IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v260y2022ics0360544222015961.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic model for liquid fossil fuel production based on gross product/ERoEI coupling

Author

Listed:
  • Lamorlette, Aymeric

Abstract

Since 1940, many attempts to model oil production have been proposed. These approaches, using increasing complexity, consider growing and decay of production independently of external, time-varying, causes. It is here proposed to extend the production equation by a dynamic dependency between oil and Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI). The model is based on mass and energy conservation and can be applied to all extracted liquid fossil fuels. After comparison with oil extraction and ERoEI dynamics, it highlights the existence of an external, controlling parameter: the investment rate, which account for the re-investment in newly operated liquid fuel sources. Its dynamic provides explanations about the oil shock and some explanations about the peak prediction issues of the Hubbert model. Studying this evolution suggests an attempt to control the oil production in order to sustain a globally linear production, starting around 1943: at short time scale (shorter than 28–36 years), the investment rate evolved linearly. However, in order to keep a linearly growing production at long time scale, the investment rate had to evolve exponentially: this was achieved through a piecewize linear control, where the investment rate and its derivative doubled every 28–36 years. The link between this control and the oil shocks suggests the next oil shock will occur around 2035–2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamorlette, Aymeric, 2022. "A dynamic model for liquid fossil fuel production based on gross product/ERoEI coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:260:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015961
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124693
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222015961
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124693?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    2. Court, Victor & Fizaine, Florian, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 145-159.
    3. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Michael Dale & Susan Krumdieck & Pat Bodger, 2011. "A Dynamic Function for Energy Return on Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2007. "Fuel specification, energy consumption and CO2 emission in oil refineries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1075-1092.
    6. Charles A. S. Hall & Stephen Balogh & David J.R. Murphy, 2009. "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Court, Victor & Fizaine, Florian, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 145-159.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lamorlette, A., 2023. "A coupled model of global energy production and ERoEI applied to photovoltaic and wind, an estimation of net production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    2. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. David Grassian & Daniel Olsen, 2019. "Lifecycle Energy Accounting of Three Small Offshore Oil Fields," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Charles Guay-Boutet, 2023. "Estimating the Disaggregated Standard EROI of Canadian Oil Sands Extracted via Open-pit Mining, 1997–2016," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. David J. Murphy & Marco Raugei & Michael Carbajales-Dale & Brenda Rubio Estrada, 2022. "Energy Return on Investment of Major Energy Carriers: Review and Harmonization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Marco Vittorio Ecclesia & João Santos & Paul E. Brockway & Tiago Domingos, 2022. "A Comprehensive Societal Energy Return on Investment Study of Portugal Reveals a Low but Stable Value," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2021. "Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    9. Bo Xu & Lianyong Feng & William X. Wei & Yan Hu & Jianliang Wang, 2014. "A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Louis Delannoy & Pierre-Yves Longaretti & David. J. Murphy & Emmanuel Prados, 2021. "Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Pizzol, Massimo & Heun, Matthew K., 2021. "Moving from final to useful stage in energy-economy analysis: A critical assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Victor Court, 2019. "An Estimation of Different Minimum Exergy Return Ratios Required for Society," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Adrien Fabre, 2018. "Evolution of EROIs of Electricity Until 2050: Estimation Using the Input-Output Model THEMIS," Policy Papers 2018.09, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    14. Leiva, Benjamin & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Schramski, John R., 2019. "A framework to consider energy transfers within growth theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 624-630.
    15. Melgar-Melgar, Rigo E. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2020. "Why ecological economics needs to return to its roots: The biophysical foundation of socio-economic systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Benjamin Leiva & Octavio Ramirez & John R. Schramski, 2018. "A theoretical framework to consider energy transfers within growth theory," Papers 1812.05091, arXiv.org.
    17. Luciano Celi & Claudio Della Volpe & Luca Pardi & Stefano Siboni, 2020. "Spruce budworm and oil price: a biophysical analogy," Papers 2004.14898, arXiv.org.
    18. Hong, Sanghyun & Kim, Eunsung & Jeong, Saerok, 2023. "Evaluating the sustainability of the hydrogen economy using multi-criteria decision-making analysis in Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 485-492.
    19. Zhaoyang Kong & Xiucheng Dong & Bo Xu & Rui Li & Qiang Yin & Cuifang Song, 2015. "EROI Analysis for Direct Coal Liquefaction without and with CCS: The Case of the Shenhua DCL Project in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, January.
    20. Dupont, Elise & Koppelaar, Rembrandt & Jeanmart, Hervé, 2018. "Global available wind energy with physical and energy return on investment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 322-338.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:260:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.