IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v238y2022ipas0360544221019666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate copula procedure for electric vehicle charging event simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Einolander, Johannes
  • Lahdelma, Risto

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel application area for multivariate copulas in electric vehicle charging event simulation and dependency analysis. We propose a multivariate copula procedure that can be used to generate new synthetic charging events, which retain the complex dependency and correlation structures present in real-world charging events. The paper compares the most popular multivariate copula functions to discover the most reliable one to be used with electric vehicle charging event data. Accurate EV charging event simulation and analysis is crucial in multiple theoretical and practical applications such as charging load and demand response aggregation modelling. Based on multiple goodness-of-fit tests and charging load profiles of simulated charging events, the Student-t copula was found to be the most reliable multivariate copula to be used with EV charging data. Overall, the multivariate copula procedure is effective in analysis and simulation of EV charging events as it retains the inherent variability and complex dependencies of real charging events.

Suggested Citation

  • Einolander, Johannes & Lahdelma, Risto, 2022. "Multivariate copula procedure for electric vehicle charging event simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:238:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544221019666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121718
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221019666
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121718?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre Lucas & Giuseppe Prettico & Marco Giacomo Flammini & Evangelos Kotsakis & Gianluca Fulli & Marcelo Masera, 2018. "Indicator-Based Methodology for Assessing EV Charging Infrastructure Using Exploratory Data Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Yan, Jun, 2007. "Enjoy the Joy of Copulas: With a Package copula," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i04).
    3. Frahm, Gabriel & Junker, Markus & Szimayer, Alexander, 2003. "Elliptical copulas: applicability and limitations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 275-286, July.
    4. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    5. Xydas, Erotokritos & Marmaras, Charalampos & Cipcigan, Liana M. & Jenkins, Nick & Carroll, Steve & Barker, Myles, 2016. "A data-driven approach for characterising the charging demand of electric vehicles: A UK case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 763-771.
    6. Wolbertus, Rick & Kroesen, Maarten & van den Hoed, Robert & Chorus, Caspar, 2018. "Fully charged: An empirical study into the factors that influence connection times at EV-charging stations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-7.
    7. Zhang, Jing & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Zhang, Haoran & Lv, Guoliang, 2020. "Daily electric vehicle charging load profiles considering demographics of vehicle users," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    8. Matteo Muratori, 2018. "Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 193-201, March.
    9. Yu, L. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Nie, S., 2018. "A copula-based flexible-stochastic programming method for planning regional energy system under multiple uncertainties: A case study of the urban agglomeration of Beijing and Tianjin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 60-74.
    10. Su, Jun & Lie, T.T. & Zamora, Ramon, 2020. "A rolling horizon scheduling of aggregated electric vehicles charging under the electricity exchange market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    11. Colmenar-Santos, Antonio & Muñoz-Gómez, Antonio-Miguel & Rosales-Asensio, Enrique & López-Rey, África, 2019. "Electric vehicle charging strategy to support renewable energy sources in Europe 2050 low-carbon scenario," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 61-74.
    12. Crozier, Constance & Morstyn, Thomas & McCulloch, Malcolm, 2020. "The opportunity for smart charging to mitigate the impact of electric vehicles on transmission and distribution systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    13. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yan-hui & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yong-qian & Li, Li & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Mid-to-long term wind and photovoltaic power generation prediction based on copula function and long short term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 181-191.
    14. Lixing Chen & Xueliang Huang & Hong Zhang, 2020. "Modeling the Charging Behaviors for Electric Vehicles Based on Ternary Symmetric Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, March.
    15. Alexandre Lucas & Ricardo Barranco & Nazir Refa, 2019. "EV Idle Time Estimation on Charging Infrastructure, Comparing Supervised Machine Learning Regressions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Shahryari, E. & Shayeghi, H. & Mohammadi-ivatloo, B. & Moradzadeh, M., 2019. "A copula-based method to consider uncertainties for multi-objective energy management of microgrid in presence of demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 879-890.
    17. Heredia, Willy Bernal & Chaudhari, Kalpesh & Meintz, Andrew & Jun, Myungsoo & Pless, Shanti, 2020. "Evaluation of smart charging for electric vehicle-to-building integration: A case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    18. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    19. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    20. Chen, F. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Chen, J.P., 2017. "A copula-based fuzzy chance-constrained programming model and its application to electric power generation systems planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 291-309.
    21. Trotta, Gianluca, 2020. "An empirical analysis of domestic electricity load profiles: Who consumes how much and when?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    22. Hofert, Marius & Maechler, Martin, 2011. "Nested Archimedean Copulas Meet R: The nacopula Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 39(i09).
    23. Daina, Nicolò & Sivakumar, Aruna & Polak, John W., 2017. "Modelling electric vehicles use: a survey on the methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 447-460.
    24. Abdollahi, Elnaz & Wang, Haichao & Lahdelma, Risto, 2019. "Parametric optimization of long-term multi-area heat and power production with power storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 802-812.
    25. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    26. Niemierko, Rochus & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "A D-vine copula quantile regression approach for the prediction of residential heating energy consumption based on historical data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 691-708.
    27. Steffen Grønneberg & Nils Lid Hjort, 2014. "The Copula Information Criteria," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 436-459, June.
    28. Abdollahi, Elnaz & Lahdelma, Risto, 2020. "Decomposition method for optimizing long-term multi-area energy production with heat and power storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    29. Sarabi, Siyamak & Davigny, Arnaud & Courtecuisse, Vincent & Riffonneau, Yann & Robyns, Benoît, 2016. "Potential of vehicle-to-grid ancillary services considering the uncertainties in plug-in electric vehicle availability and service/localization limitations in distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 523-540.
    30. Han, Li & Jing, Huitian & Zhang, Rongchang & Gao, Zhiyu, 2019. "Wind power forecast based on improved Long Short Term Memory network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    31. Forrest, Kate & Mac Kinnon, Michael & Tarroja, Brian & Samuelsen, Scott, 2020. "Estimating the technical feasibility of fuel cell and battery electric vehicles for the medium and heavy duty sectors in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    32. Pareschi, Giacomo & Küng, Lukas & Georges, Gil & Boulouchos, Konstantinos, 2020. "Are travel surveys a good basis for EV models? Validation of simulated charging profiles against empirical data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    33. Kojadinovic, Ivan & Yan, Jun, 2010. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions with Continuous Margins Using the copula R Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 34(i09).
    34. Powell, Siobhan & Kara, Emre Can & Sevlian, Raffi & Cezar, Gustavo Vianna & Kiliccote, Sila & Rajagopal, Ram, 2020. "Controlled workplace charging of electric vehicles: The impact of rate schedules on transformer aging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    35. Pfeifer, Antun & Dobravec, Viktorija & Pavlinek, Luka & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2018. "Integration of renewable energy and demand response technologies in interconnected energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 447-455.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Einolander, Johannes & Lahdelma, Risto, 2022. "Explicit demand response potential in electric vehicle charging networks: Event-based simulation based on the multivariate copula procedure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Graham Town & Seyedfoad Taghizadeh & Sara Deilami, 2022. "Review of Fast Charging for Electrified Transport: Demand, Technology, Systems, and Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Li, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenpo & Zhang, Lei & Sun, Fengchun & Cui, Dingsong & Hecht, Christopher & Figgener, Jan & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2023. "Electric vehicle behavior modeling and applications in vehicle-grid integration: An overview," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    4. Stanislav Anatolyev & Vladimir Pyrlik, 2021. "Shrinkage for Gaussian and t Copulas in Ultra-High Dimensions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp699, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. F. Marta L. Di Lascio & Andrea Menapace & Maurizio Righetti, 2020. "Joint and conditional dependence modelling of peak district heating demand and outdoor temperature: a copula-based approach," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 373-395, June.
    6. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Claudio Latini & Zahid I. Younas & Mamdouh A. S. Al-Faryan, 2023. "Optimization of portfolios with cryptocurrencies: Markowitz and GARCH-Copula model approach," Papers 2401.00507, arXiv.org.
    7. Siobhan Powell & Gustavo Vianna Cezar & Liang Min & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Ram Rajagopal, 2022. "Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 932-945, October.
    8. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    9. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    10. Milan Straka & Pasquale De Falco & Gabriella Ferruzzi & Daniela Proto & Gijs van der Poel & Shahab Khormali & v{L}ubov{s} Buzna, 2019. "Predicting popularity of EV charging infrastructure from GIS data," Papers 1910.02498, arXiv.org.
    11. Hofert, Marius & Mächler, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2012. "Likelihood inference for Archimedean copulas in high dimensions under known margins," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 133-150.
    12. Okhrin, Ostap & Ristig, Alexander, 2014. "Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae: The HAC Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 58(i04).
    13. Shofiqul Islam & Sonia Anand & Jemila Hamid & Lehana Thabane & Joseph Beyene, 2020. "A copula-based method of classifying individuals into binary disease categories using dependent biomarkers," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(4), pages 871-897, December.
    14. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Jing & Liu, Yongqian & Lv, Guoliang & Han, Shuang & Alfonzo, Ian Emmanuel Gonzalez, 2020. "EV charging load simulation and forecasting considering traffic jam and weather to support the integration of renewables and EVs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 623-641.
    15. Jäschke, Stefan, 2014. "Estimation of risk measures in energy portfolios using modern copula techniques," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 359-376.
    16. Göran Kauermann & Renate Meyer, 2014. "Penalized marginal likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of Archimedean copulas," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 283-306, February.
    17. Milan Straka & Rui Carvalho & Gijs van der Poel & v{L}ubov{s} Buzna, 2020. "Explaining the distribution of energy consumption at slow charging infrastructure for electric vehicles from socio-economic data," Papers 2006.01672, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    18. Powell, Siobhan & Vianna Cezar, Gustavo & Apostolaki-Iosifidou, Elpiniki & Rajagopal, Ram, 2022. "Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    19. Simolin, Toni & Rauma, Kalle & Viri, Riku & Mäkinen, Johanna & Rautiainen, Antti & Järventausta, Pertti, 2021. "Charging powers of the electric vehicle fleet: Evolution and implications at commercial charging sites," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    20. Amjad, Muhammad & Akbar, Muhammad & Ullah, Hamd, 2022. "A copula-based approach for creating an index of micronutrient intakes at household level in Pakistan," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:238:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544221019666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.