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The Copula Information Criteria

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  • Steffen Grønneberg
  • Nils Lid Hjort

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="sjos12042-abs-0001"> We derive two types of Akaike information criterion (AIC)-like model-selection formulae for the semiparametric pseudo-maximum likelihood procedure. We first adapt the arguments leading to the original AIC formula, related to empirical estimation of a certain Kullback–Leibler information distance. This gives a significantly different formula compared with the AIC, which we name the copula information criterion. However, we show that such a model-selection procedure cannot exist for copula models with densities that grow very fast near the edge of the unit cube. This problem affects most popular copula models. We then derive what we call the cross-validation copula information criterion, which exists under weak conditions and is a first-order approximation to exact cross validation. This formula is very similar to the standard AIC formula but has slightly different motivation. A brief illustration with real data is given.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Grønneberg & Nils Lid Hjort, 2014. "The Copula Information Criteria," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 436-459, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:436-459
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/sjos.12042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Genest & Jean‐François Quessy & Bruno Rémillard, 2006. "Goodness‐of‐fit Procedures for Copula Models Based on the Probability Integral Transformation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 337-366, June.
    2. Panchenko, Valentyn, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit test for copulas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 176-182.
    3. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258.
    4. Segers, Johan, 2012. "Asymptotics of empirical copula processes under non-restrictive smoothness assumptions," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
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    4. Suneerat Srisopa & Peerapong Luamka & Saowanee Rattanawan & Khanitta Somtrakoon & Piyapatr Busababodhin, 2023. "Analyzing Spatial Dependence of Rice Production in Northeast Thailand for Sustainable Agriculture: An Optimal Copula Function Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Elisa Perrone & Andreas Rappold & Werner G. Müller, 2017. "$$D_s$$ D s -optimality in copula models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(3), pages 403-418, August.
    6. Bolancé, Catalina & Bahraoui, Zuhair & Artís, Manuel, 2014. "Quantifying the risk using copulae with nonparametric marginals," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 46-56.
    7. Catalina Bolancé & Montserrat Guillén & Alemar Padilla, 2015. "Estimación del riesgo mediante el ajuste de cópulas," Working Papers 2015-01, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
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    9. Keay, Myoung-Jin, 2016. "Partial copula methods for models with multiple discrete endogenous explanatory variables and sample selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 85-87.
    10. Einolander, Johannes & Lahdelma, Risto, 2022. "Multivariate copula procedure for electric vehicle charging event simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    11. Calabrese, Raffaella & Osmetti, Silvia Angela, 2019. "A new approach to measure systemic risk: A bivariate copula model for dependent censored data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1053-1064.
    12. Fontaine, Charles & Frostig, Ron D. & Ombao, Hernando, 2020. "Modeling non-linear spectral domain dependence using copulas with applications to rat local field potentials," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 85-103.
    13. Mazo, Gildas & Averyanov, Yaroslav, 2019. "Constraining kernel estimators in semiparametric copula mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 170-189.
    14. Sehee Kim & Yi Li & Donna Spiegelman, 2016. "A semiparametric copula method for Cox models with covariate measurement error," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, January.
    15. Tepegjozova Marija & Zhou Jing & Claeskens Gerda & Czado Claudia, 2022. "Nonparametric C- and D-vine-based quantile regression," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Ahmet Akca & Ethem Çanakoğlu, 2021. "Adaptive stochastic risk estimation of firm operating profit," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(3), pages 463-504, September.
    17. Ko, Vinnie & Hjort, Nils Lid, 2019. "Model robust inference with two-stage maximum likelihood estimation for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 362-381.

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