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Probabilistic optimal power flow in islanded microgrids with load, wind and solar uncertainties including intermittent generation spatial correlation

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  • Jithendranath, J.
  • Das, Debapriya
  • Guerrero, Josep M.

Abstract

Increased investiture towards Distribution Generation (DG) in recent past had prompted for transmutation of existing networks to form microgrids that can operate autonomously or in conjunction with main-grid. In particular, the augmenting zeal for renewable DGs is thriving at recent times; but non-dispatchability and uncertain nature pose specific challenges, which is the primary concern in this work. This paper employs Point Estimate Method (PEM) for handling uncertainties to solve the probabilistic-optimal power flow problem (POPF) with multiple objectives formulated in an islanded microgrid with droop coordinated DGs including uncertainties involved in load, wind and solar PV with suitable probability distributions. The devised POPF problem is proposed to solve for optimal droop parameters by multi-objective ant-lion optimization algorithm; tested and verified on modified 33-bus system. Furthermore, in actuality, spatial correlations among renewables play vital role in devising operational schedule for energy management strategies. This paper deals with PEM compounded with Nataf Transformation for POPF to handle spatial correlations in renewable generations. The dominance of wind correlation over solar PV correlations in POPF problem is highlighted. The robustness of proposed approach is verified with benchmark Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to affirm about its accuracy for suitable replacement of proposed approach to MCS.

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  • Jithendranath, J. & Das, Debapriya & Guerrero, Josep M., 2021. "Probabilistic optimal power flow in islanded microgrids with load, wind and solar uncertainties including intermittent generation spatial correlation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:222:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221000967
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.119847
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    3. Gupta, S. & Maulik, A. & Das, D. & Singh, A., 2022. "Coordinated stochastic optimal energy management of grid-connected microgrids considering demand response, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and smart transformers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
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    5. Li, Yahui & Sun, Yuanyuan & Wang, Qingyan & Sun, Kaiqi & Li, Ke-Jun & Zhang, Yan, 2023. "Probabilistic harmonic forecasting of the distribution system considering time-varying uncertainties of the distributed energy resources and electrical loads," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    6. Abulanwar, Sayed & Ghanem, Abdelhady & Rizk, Mohammad E.M. & Hu, Weihao, 2021. "Adaptive synergistic control strategy for a hybrid AC/DC microgrid during normal operation and contingencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    7. Quan, Hao & Lv, Junjie & Guo, Jian & Zhang, Wenjie, 2022. "Investigation of spatial correlation on optimal power flow with high penetration of wind power: A comparative study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    8. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Jordi de la Hoz, 2022. "Optimization Models under Uncertainty in Distributed Generation Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-40, March.
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    10. Hartani, Mohamed Amine & Rezk, Hegazy & Benhammou, Aissa & Hamouda, Messaoud & Abdelkhalek, Othmane & Mekhilef, Saad & Olabi, A.G., 2023. "Proposed frequency decoupling-based fuzzy logic control for power allocation and state-of-charge recovery of hybrid energy storage systems adopting multi-level energy management for multi-DC-microgrid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Gao, Fang & Xu, Zidong & Yin, Linfei, 2024. "Bayesian deep neural networks for spatio-temporal probabilistic optimal power flow with multi-source renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    12. Maen Z. Kreishan & Ahmed F. Zobaa, 2021. "Optimal Allocation and Operation of Droop-Controlled Islanded Microgrids: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-45, July.
    13. Xiaotian Xia & Liye Xiao, 2023. "Probabilistic Power Flow Method for Hybrid AC/DC Grids Considering Correlation among Uncertainty Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.

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