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A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model

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  • Su, Huai
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Zhang, Jinjun
  • Xu, Mingjing
  • Li, Xueyi
  • Zhang, Zongjie

Abstract

The rapid development of big data and smart technology in the natural gas industry requires timely and accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption on different time horizons. In this work, we propose a robust hybrid hours-ahead gas consumption method by integrating Wavelet Transform, RNN-structured deep learning and Genetic Algorithm. The Wavelet Transform is used to reduce the complexity of the forecasting tasks by decomposing the original series of gas loads into several sub-components. The RNN-structured deep learning method is built up via combining a multi-layer Bi-LSTM model and a LSTM model. The multi-layer Bi-LSTM model can comprehensively capture the features in the sub-components and the LSTM model is used to forecast the future gas consumption based on these abstracted features. To enhance the performance of the RNN-structured deep learning model, Genetic Algorithm is employed to optimize the structure of each layer in the model. Besides, the dropout technology is applied in this work to overcome the potential problem of overfitting. In this case study, the effectiveness of the developed method is verified from multiple perspective, including graphical examination, mathematical errors analysis and model comparison, on different data sets.

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  • Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Xu, Mingjing & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2019. "A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 585-597.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:178:y:2019:i:c:p:585-597
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.167
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    10. Jose Juan Caceres-Hernandez & Gloria Martin-Rodriguez & Jonay Hernandez-Martin, 2022. "A proposal for measuring and comparing seasonal variations in hourly economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1995-2021, April.
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    18. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    19. Białek, Jakub & Bujalski, Wojciech & Wojdan, Konrad & Guzek, Michał & Kurek, Teresa, 2022. "Dataset level explanation of heat demand forecasting ANN with SHAP," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    20. Svoboda, Radek & Kotik, Vojtech & Platos, Jan, 2021. "Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting from long-term data collection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    21. Jingjing Hu & Zhaoming Yang & Huai Su, 2023. "Dynamic Prediction of Natural Gas Calorific Value Based on Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
    22. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.

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