IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i2p799-d1031052.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Prediction of Natural Gas Calorific Value Based on Deep Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Jingjing Hu

    (National Engineering Research Center of Oil and Gas Pipeline Transportation Safety, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum−Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
    MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China)

  • Zhaoming Yang

    (National Engineering Research Center of Oil and Gas Pipeline Transportation Safety, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum−Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
    MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
    Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Huai Su

    (National Engineering Research Center of Oil and Gas Pipeline Transportation Safety, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum−Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
    MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China)

Abstract

The natural gas quality fluctuates in complex natural gas pipeline networks, because of the influence of the pipeline transmission process, changes in the gas source, and fluctuations in customer demand in the mixing process. Based on the dynamic characteristics of the system with large time lag and non−linearity, this article establishes a deep−learning−based dynamic prediction model for calorific value in natural gas pipeline networks, which is used to accurately and efficiently analyze the dynamic changes of calorific value in pipeline networks caused by non−stationary processes. Numerical experiment results show that the deep−learning model can effectively extract the effects of non−stationary and large time lag hydraulic characteristics on natural gas calorific value distribution. The method is able to rapidly predict the dynamic changes of gas calorific value in the pipeline network, based on real−time operational data such as pressure, flow rate, and gas quality parameters. It has a prediction accuracy of over 99% and a calculation time of only 1% of that of the physical simulation model (built and solved based on TGNET commercial software). Moreover, with noise and missing key parameters in the data samples, the method can still maintain an accuracy rate of over 97%, which can provide a new method for the dynamic assignment of calorific values to complex natural gas pipeline networks and on−site metering management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingjing Hu & Zhaoming Yang & Huai Su, 2023. "Dynamic Prediction of Natural Gas Calorific Value Based on Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:799-:d:1031052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/799/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/799/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Daming & Gao, Fei & Breaz, Elena & Ravey, Alexandre & Miraoui, Abdellatif, 2017. "Degradation prediction of PEM fuel cell using a moving window based hybrid prognostic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1175-1186.
    2. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Xu, Mingjing & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2019. "A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 585-597.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Zhaoming & Liu, Zhe & Zhou, Jing & Song, Chaofan & Xiang, Qi & He, Qian & Hu, Jingjing & Faber, Michael H. & Zio, Enrico & Li, Zhenlin & Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun, 2023. "A graph neural network (GNN) method for assigning gas calorific values to natural gas pipeline networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deng, Zhihua & Chan, Siew Hwa & Chen, Qihong & Liu, Hao & Zhang, Liyan & Zhou, Keliang & Tong, Sirui & Fu, Zhichao, 2023. "Efficient degradation prediction of PEMFCs using ELM-AE based on fuzzy extension broad learning system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Zeng, Huibin & Shao, Bilin & Dai, Hongbin & Yan, Yichuan & Tian, Ning, 2023. "Prediction of fluctuation loads based on GARCH family-CatBoost-CNNLSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    4. Xuexia Zhang & Zixuan Yu & Weirong Chen, 2019. "Life Prediction Based on D-S ELM for PEMFC," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2023. "A Machine-Learning-Based Approach for Natural Gas Futures Curve Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.
    7. Pei, Pucheng & Meng, Yining & Chen, Dongfang & Ren, Peng & Wang, Mingkai & Wang, Xizhong, 2023. "Lifetime prediction method of proton exchange membrane fuel cells based on current degradation law," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Jiseong Noh & Hyun-Ji Park & Jong Soo Kim & Seung-June Hwang, 2020. "Gated Recurrent Unit with Genetic Algorithm for Product Demand Forecasting in Supply Chain Management," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Yang, Yang & Yu, Xiaoran & Zhu, Wenchao & Xie, Changjun & Zhao, Bo & Zhang, Leiqi & Shi, Ying & Huang, Liang & Zhang, Ruiming, 2023. "Degradation prediction of proton exchange membrane fuel cells with model uncertainty quantification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    10. Lin, Yu & Lu, Qin & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "Forecasting energy prices using a novel hybrid model with variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    11. Yu, Yang & Yu, Qinghua & Luo, RunSen & Chen, Sheng & Yang, Jiebo & Yan, Fuwu, 2024. "Degradation and polarization curve prediction of proton exchange membrane fuel cells: An interpretable model perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    12. Pan, Rui & Yang, Duo & Wang, Yujie & Chen, Zonghai, 2020. "Health degradation assessment of proton exchange membrane fuel cell based on an analytical equivalent circuit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    13. He, Wenbin & Liu, Ting & Ming, Wuyi & Li, Zongze & Du, Jinguang & Li, Xiaoke & Guo, Xudong & Sun, Peiyan, 2024. "Progress in prediction of remaining useful life of hydrogen fuel cells based on deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    14. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    15. Su, Huai & Chi, Lixun & Zio, Enrico & Li, Zhenlin & Fan, Lin & Yang, Zhe & Liu, Zhe & Zhang, Jinjun, 2021. "An integrated, systematic data-driven supply-demand side management method for smart integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    16. Fang, Xi & Gong, Guangcai & Li, Guannan & Chun, Liang & Li, Wenqiang & Peng, Pei, 2021. "A hybrid deep transfer learning strategy for short term cross-building energy prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    17. Wang, Shaomin & Wang, Shouxiang & Chen, Haiwen & Gu, Qiang, 2020. "Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Zuo, Jian & Lv, Hong & Zhou, Daming & Xue, Qiong & Jin, Liming & Zhou, Wei & Yang, Daijun & Zhang, Cunman, 2021. "Deep learning based prognostic framework towards proton exchange membrane fuel cell for automotive application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    19. Deng, Huiwen & Hu, Weihao & Cao, Di & Chen, Weirong & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe & Blaabjerg, Frede, 2022. "Degradation trajectories prognosis for PEM fuel cell systems based on Gaussian process regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    20. Zhang, Zhendong & Wang, Ya-Xiong & He, Hongwen & Sun, Fengchun, 2021. "A short- and long-term prognostic associating with remaining useful life estimation for proton exchange membrane fuel cell," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:799-:d:1031052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.