IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v165y2016icp735-747.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploiting sparsity of interconnections in spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using Wavelet Transform

Author

Listed:
  • Tascikaraoglu, Akin
  • Sanandaji, Borhan M.
  • Poolla, Kameshwar
  • Varaiya, Pravin

Abstract

Integration of renewable energy resources into the power grid is essential in achieving the envisioned sustainable energy future. Stochasticity and intermittency characteristics of renewable energies, however, present challenges for integrating these resources into the existing grid in a large scale. Reliable renewable energy integration is facilitated by accurate wind forecasts. In this paper, we propose a novel wind speed forecasting method which first utilizes Wavelet Transform (WT) for decomposition of the wind speed data into more stationary components and then uses a spatio-temporal model on each sub-series for incorporating both temporal and spatial information. The proposed spatio-temporal forecasting approach on each sub-series is based on the assumption that there usually exists an intrinsic low-dimensional structure between time series data in a collection of meteorological stations. Our approach is inspired by Compressive Sensing (CS) and structured-sparse recovery algorithms. Based on detailed case studies, we show that the proposed approach based on exploiting the sparsity of correlations between a large set of meteorological stations and decomposing time series for higher-accuracy forecasts considerably improve the short-term forecasts compared to the temporal and spatio-temporal benchmark methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Tascikaraoglu, Akin & Sanandaji, Borhan M. & Poolla, Kameshwar & Varaiya, Pravin, 2016. "Exploiting sparsity of interconnections in spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using Wavelet Transform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 735-747.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:165:y:2016:i:c:p:735-747
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915016554
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.082?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    2. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    3. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M. & Vural, B., 2012. "The assessment of the contribution of short-term wind power predictions to the efficiency of stand-alone hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 156-165.
    4. Xinxin Zhu & Marc G. Genton, 2012. "Short‐Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 80(1), pages 2-23, April.
    5. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    6. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-Qi & Chen, Chao & Li, Yan-fei, 2010. "A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1857-1861.
    7. Gneiting, Tilmann & Larson, Kristin & Westrick, Kenneth & Genton, Marc G. & Aldrich, Eric, 2006. "Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching SpaceTime Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 968-979, September.
    8. Catalão, J.P.S. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Mendes, V.M.F., 2011. "Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1245-1251.
    9. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
    10. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Erdinc, O. & Uzunoglu, M. & Karakas, A., 2014. "An adaptive load dispatching and forecasting strategy for a virtual power plant including renewable energy conversion units," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 445-453.
    11. Zhang, Wenyu & Wu, Jie & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Shen, Lin, 2012. "Performance analysis of four modified approaches for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 324-333.
    12. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    13. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    14. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    15. Hering, Amanda S. & Genton, Marc G., 2010. "Powering Up With Space-Time Wind Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 92-104.
    16. Bilgili, Mehmet & Sahin, Besir & Yasar, Abdulkadir, 2007. "Application of artificial neural networks for the wind speed prediction of target station using reference stations data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(14), pages 2350-2360.
    17. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khambadkone, Ashwin M. & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 71-82.
    18. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    2. Akçay, Hüseyin & Filik, Tansu, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting by spectral analysis from long-term observations with missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 653-662.
    3. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2015. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 613-622.
    4. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    5. Feng, Cong & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Zhang, Jie, 2017. "A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1245-1257.
    6. De Giorgi, Maria Grazia & Ficarella, Antonio & Tarantino, Marco, 2011. "Assessment of the benefits of numerical weather predictions in wind power forecasting based on statistical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3968-3978.
    7. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    8. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Drisya, G.V. & Asokan, K. & Kumar, K. Satheesh, 2018. "Diverse dynamical characteristics across the frequency spectrum of wind speed fluctuations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 540-550.
    10. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    11. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    12. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    13. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 561-577.
    14. Ambach, Daniel & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2017. "A new high-dimensional time series approach for wind speed, wind direction and air pressure forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 833-850.
    15. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    16. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    17. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    18. Zjavka, Ladislav, 2015. "Wind speed forecast correction models using polynomial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 998-1006.
    19. Tian, Chengshi & Hao, Yan & Hu, Jianming, 2018. "A novel wind speed forecasting system based on hybrid data preprocessing and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 301-319.
    20. Zhang, Chi & Wei, Haikun & Zhao, Junsheng & Liu, Tianhong & Zhu, Tingting & Zhang, Kanjian, 2016. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and feature selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 727-737.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:165:y:2016:i:c:p:735-747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.