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Daily Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model

Author

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  • Nan Wei

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
    CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
    Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

  • Changjun Li

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
    CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China)

  • Jiehao Duan

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
    CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China)

  • Jinyuan Liu

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
    CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China)

  • Fanhua Zeng

    (Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

Abstract

Forecasting daily natural gas load accurately is difficult because it is affected by various factors. A large number of redundant factors existing in the original dataset will increase computational complexity and decrease the accuracy of forecasting models. This study aims to provide accurate forecasting of natural gas load using a deep learning (DL)-based hybrid model, which combines principal component correlation analysis (PCCA) and (LSTM) network. PCCA is an improved principal component analysis (PCA) and is first proposed here in this paper. Considering the correlation between components in the eigenspace, PCCA can not only extract the components that affect natural gas load but also remove the redundant components. LSTM is a famous DL network, and it was used to predict daily natural gas load in our work. The proposed model was validated by using recent natural gas load data from Xi’an (China) and Athens (Greece). Additionally, 14 weather factors were introduced into the input dataset of the forecasting model. The results showed that PCCA–LSTM demonstrated better performance compared with LSTM, PCA–LSTM, back propagation neural network (BPNN), and support vector regression (SVR). The lowest mean absolute percentage errors of PCCA–LSTM were 3.22% and 7.29% for Xi’an and Athens, respectively. On these bases, the proposed model can be regarded as an accurate and robust model for daily natural gas load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Wei & Changjun Li & Jiehao Duan & Jinyuan Liu & Fanhua Zeng, 2019. "Daily Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:218-:d:196852
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Jinyuan Liu & Shouxi Wang & Nan Wei & Yi Yang & Yihao Lv & Xu Wang & Fanhua Zeng, 2023. "An Enhancement Method Based on Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Short-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Liu, Jinyuan & Li, Changjun & Huang, Yuanyuan & Zeng, Fanhua, 2022. "Data complexity of daily natural gas consumption: Measurement and impact on forecasting performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    6. Fang, Yu & Jia, Chunhong & Wang, Xin & Min, Fan, 2024. "A fusion gas load prediction model with three-way residual error amendment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    7. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Wang, Wei & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Changjun & Zeng, Fanhua & Fu, Lingdi, 2022. "Short-term load forecasting using detrend singular spectrum fluctuation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    8. Rundong Gong & Xiukun Wang & Lei Li & Kaikai Li & Ran An & Chenggang Xian, 2022. "Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Spontaneous Imbibition in Variable-Diameter Capillaries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Liu, Jinyuan & Wang, Shouxi & Wei, Nan & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Ze & Zeng, Fanhua, 2023. "A clustering-based feature enhancement method for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    10. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    11. Wang, Qi & Suo, Ruixia & Han, Qiutong, 2024. "A study on natural gas consumption forecasting in China using the LMDI-PSO-LSTM model: Factor decomposition and scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    12. Wei, Nan & Li, Changjun & Peng, Xiaolong & Li, Yang & Zeng, Fanhua, 2019. "Daily natural gas consumption forecasting via the application of a novel hybrid model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 358-368.
    13. Du, Jian & Zheng, Jianqin & Liang, Yongtu & Lu, Xinyi & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Shahzad, Khurram & Rashid, Muhammad Imtiaz & Ali, Arshid Mahmood & Liao, Qi & Wang, Bohong, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning framework for predicting daily natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    14. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

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