IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v178y2019icp252-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Monte Carlo simulation-based decision support system for reliability analysis of Taiwan’s power system: Framework and empirical study

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Hsiang-Hua
  • Chang, Kuo-Hao
  • Hsu, Hsin-Wei
  • Cuckler, Robert

Abstract

Taiwan aims to greatly increase renewable energy generation by 2025; as such, an important topic is whether to increase the statutory planning reserve margin (PRM) to overcome high share of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). Therefore, in this research, the goal is to investigate the use of loss of load expectation (LOLE) as a risk measure to provide insights into how the available power capacity, at a national level, can fail to meet the customer load. A Monte-Carlo-simulation-based framework was proposed to enable fast calculation of the LOLE. Considering a general national power system that consists various sources of renewable and conventional power, the proposed framework allows for a scenario-based calculation under the realistic situation that various conventional energy sources can be ramped up to dynamically meet losses of load. To make the methodology more user-friendly and applicable to power systems, a decision support system was developed. Moreover, a reliability analysis of Taiwan’s power system was conducted to show how to evaluate the impact of energy policy by 2025. Sensitivity analyses on two scenarios (with and without limiting coal-fired power generation) on LOLE were done. Finally, recommendations related to the reliability of the power system under Taiwan’s energy transition were provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Hsiang-Hua & Chang, Kuo-Hao & Hsu, Hsin-Wei & Cuckler, Robert, 2019. "A Monte Carlo simulation-based decision support system for reliability analysis of Taiwan’s power system: Framework and empirical study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 252-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:178:y:2019:i:c:p:252-262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219307911
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kayal, Partha & Chanda, C.K., 2015. "Optimal mix of solar and wind distributed generations considering performance improvement of electrical distribution network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 173-186.
    2. Georgilakis, Pavlos S. & Katsigiannis, Yiannis A., 2009. "Reliability and economic evaluation of small autonomous power systems containing only renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 65-70.
    3. Abadie, Luis Ma & Chamorro, José M., 2019. "Physical adequacy of a power generation system: The case of Spain in the long term," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 637-652.
    4. Mabel, M. Carolin & Raj, R. Edwin & Fernandez, E., 2010. "Adequacy evaluation of wind power generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5217-5222.
    5. Youcef Ettoumi, F. & Mefti, A. & Adane, A. & Bouroubi, M.Y., 2002. "Statistical analysis of solar measurements in Algeria using beta distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-67.
    6. Keane, A. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Denny, E. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2925-2934, May.
    7. Nojavan, Sayyad & Majidi, Majid & Esfetanaj, Naser Nourani, 2017. "An efficient cost-reliability optimization model for optimal siting and sizing of energy storage system in a microgrid in the presence of responsible load management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 89-97.
    8. Milligan, Michael & Porter, Kevin, 2006. "The Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 91-99, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2022. "Optimal Loss of Load Expectation for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Fuel Unavailability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-17, October.
    2. He, Xinran & Ding, Tao & Zhang, Xiaosheng & Huang, Yuhan & Li, Li & Zhang, Qinglei & Li, Fangxing, 2023. "A robust reliability evaluation model with sequential acceleration method for power systems considering renewable energy temporal-spatial correlation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    3. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Hong, Ying-Yi & Apolinario, Gerard Francesco DG. & Chung, Chen-Nien & Lu, Tai-Ken & Chu, Chia-Chi, 2020. "Effect of Taiwan's energy policy on unit commitment in 2025," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Saheed Lekan Gbadamosi & Nnamdi I. Nwulu, 2020. "Optimal Power Dispatch and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid CHP-PV-Wind Systems in Farming Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Rizki Firmansyah Setya Budi & Moch. Djoko Birmano & Elok Satiti Amitayani, 2021. "Selection of Large-scale Nuclear Power Plant Based on Economic and Reliability Aspects in Indonesian Power System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 42-51.
    7. Rusin, Andrzej & Wojaczek, Adam, 2023. "Changes in the structure of the Polish energy mix in the transition period to ensure the safety and reliability of energy supplies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Marta Bottero & Federico Dell’Anna & Vito Morgese, 2021. "Evaluating the Transition Towards Post-Carbon Cities: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-28, January.
    9. Hsin-Hua Tsai & Huan-Sheng Tseng & Chun-Kai Huang & Su-Chun Yu, 2022. "Review on the Conflicts between Offshore Wind Power and Fishery Rights: Marine Spatial Planning in Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Firouzi, Mohsen & Samimi, Abouzar & Salami, Abolfazl, 2022. "Reliability evaluation of a composite power system in the presence of renewable generations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    11. Sun, Chenhao & Wang, Xin & Zheng, Yihui, 2020. "An ensemble system to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of energy security weaknesses in transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    12. Mimica, Marko & Giménez de Urtasun, Laura & Krajačić, Goran, 2022. "A robust risk assessment method for energy planning scenarios on smart islands under the demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen, Yung-Chi & Chou, Chiyang James & Lin, Grace T.R., 2011. "The portfolio of renewable energy sources for achieving the three E policy goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2589-2598.
    2. Esmaieli, M. & Ahmadian, M., 2018. "The effect of research and development incentive on wind power investment, a system dynamics approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 765-773.
    3. Razavi, Seyed-Ehsan & Rahimi, Ehsan & Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh & Nezhad, Ali Esmaeel & Lotfi, Mohamed & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2019. "Impact of distributed generation on protection and voltage regulation of distribution systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 157-167.
    4. Ahmad Abuelrub & Osama Saadeh & Hussein M. K. Al-Masri, 2018. "Scenario Aggregation-Based Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Plant Design," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Li, Yanfu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 235-244.
    6. Paik, Chunhyun & Chung, Yongjoo & Kim, Young Jin, 2021. "ELCC-based capacity credit estimation accounting for uncertainties in capacity factors and its application to solar power in Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 833-841.
    7. Antonio Bracale & Pierluigi Caramia & Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita Di Fazio & Gabriella Ferruzzi, 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Paliwal, Priyanka & Patidar, N.P. & Nema, R.K., 2014. "Determination of reliability constrained optimal resource mix for an autonomous hybrid power system using Particle Swarm Optimization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 194-204.
    9. Abbas Rabiee & Ali Abdali & Seyed Masoud Mohseni-Bonab & Mohsen Hazrati, 2021. "Risk-Averse Scheduling of Combined Heat and Power-Based Microgrids in Presence of Uncertain Distributed Energy Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-24, June.
    10. Duccio Baldi & Magda Moner-Girona & Elena Fumagalli & Fernando Fahl, 2022. "Planning sustainable electricity solutions for refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 369-379, April.
    11. Ji, Haoran & Wang, Chengshan & Li, Peng & Song, Guanyu & Yu, Hao & Wu, Jianzhong, 2019. "Quantified analysis method for operational flexibility of active distribution networks with high penetration of distributed generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 706-714.
    12. Kools, L. & Phillipson, F., 2016. "Data granularity and the optimal planning of distributed generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 342-352.
    13. Nagaraju Dharavat & Suresh Kumar Sudabattula & Suresh Velamuri & Sachin Mishra & Naveen Kumar Sharma & Mohit Bajaj & Elmazeg Elgamli & Mokhtar Shouran & Salah Kamel, 2022. "Optimal Allocation of Renewable Distributed Generators and Electric Vehicles in a Distribution System Using the Political Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-25, September.
    14. Kalim Ullah & Sajjad Ali & Taimoor Ahmad Khan & Imran Khan & Sadaqat Jan & Ibrar Ali Shah & Ghulam Hafeez, 2020. "An Optimal Energy Optimization Strategy for Smart Grid Integrated with Renewable Energy Sources and Demand Response Programs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Roos, Aleksandra & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2018. "Value of demand flexibility on spot and reserve electricity markets in future power system with increased shares of variable renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 207-217.
    16. Moisés Costa, Paulo & Matos, Manuel A., 2010. "Capacity credit of microgeneration and microgrids," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6330-6337, October.
    17. Mohseni, Soheil & Brent, Alan C. & Kelly, Scott & Browne, Will N., 2022. "Demand response-integrated investment and operational planning of renewable and sustainable energy systems considering forecast uncertainties: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Nolan, Sheila & Devine, Mel & Lynch, Muireann & O'Malley, Mark, 2016. "Impact of Demand Response Participation in Energy, Reserve and Capacity Markets," MPRA Paper 74672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Muhyaddin Rawa & Abdullah Abusorrah & Yusuf Al-Turki & Saad Mekhilef & Mostafa H. Mostafa & Ziad M. Ali & Shady H. E. Abdel Aleem, 2020. "Optimal Allocation and Economic Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems: Self-Consumption Rate and Hosting Capacity Enhancement for Microgrids with High Renewable Penetration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M. & Huclin, Sébastien & Ven, Dirk-Jan van de, 2020. "On flexible hydropower and security of supply: Spain beyond 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:178:y:2019:i:c:p:252-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.