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A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Bracale

    (Department for Technologies, University Parthenope of Napoli, Centro Direzionale di Napoli, Is. C4, 80143 Napoli, Italy)

  • Pierluigi Caramia

    (Department for Technologies, University Parthenope of Napoli, Centro Direzionale di Napoli, Is. C4, 80143 Napoli, Italy)

  • Guido Carpinelli

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and of Information Technologies, University Federico II of Napoli, via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

  • Anna Rita Di Fazio

    (Department of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, via Di Biasio 43, 03042 Cassino, Italy)

  • Gabriella Ferruzzi

    (Department of Economical-Management Engineering, University Federico II of Napoli, Piazzale V. Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

Abstract

A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Bracale & Pierluigi Caramia & Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita Di Fazio & Gabriella Ferruzzi, 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:2:p:733-747:d:23477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Youcef Ettoumi, F. & Mefti, A. & Adane, A. & Bouroubi, M.Y., 2002. "Statistical analysis of solar measurements in Algeria using beta distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-67.
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