IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i21p7854-d950972.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Loss of Load Expectation for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Fuel Unavailability

Author

Listed:
  • Radhanon Diewvilai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand)

  • Kulyos Audomvongseree

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
    Energy Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand)

Abstract

In generation expansion planning, reliability level is the key criterion to ensure enough generation above peak demand in case there are any generation outages. This reliability criterion must be appropriately optimized to provide a reliable generation system with a minimum generation cost. Currently, a method to determine an optimal reliability criterion is mainly focused on reserve margin, an accustomed criterion used by several generation utilities. However, Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is a more suitable reliability criterion for a generation system with a high proportion of renewable energy since it considers both the probabilistic characteristics of the generation system and the entire load’s profile. Moreover, it is also correlated with the reserve margin. Considering the current fuel supply situation, a probabilistic model based on Bayes’ Theorem is also proposed to incorporate fuel supply unavailability into the probabilistic criterion. This paper proposes a method for determining the optimal LOLE along with a model that incorporates fuel supply unavailability into consideration. This method is tested with Thailand’s Power Development Plan 2018 revision 1 to demonstrate numerical examples. It is found that the optimal LOLE of the test system is 0.7 day/year, or shifted to 0.55 day/year in the case of considering the fuel supply unavailability.

Suggested Citation

  • Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2022. "Optimal Loss of Load Expectation for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Fuel Unavailability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:21:p:7854-:d:950972
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/21/7854/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/21/7854/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    2. Oree, Vishwamitra & Sayed Hassen, Sayed Z. & Fleming, Peter J., 2019. "A multi-objective framework for long-term generation expansion planning with variable renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Hadidian Moghaddam, Mohammad Jafar & Kalam, Akhtar & Nowdeh, Saber Arabi & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Babanezhad, Manoochehr & Saha, Sajeeb, 2019. "Optimal sizing and energy management of stand-alone hybrid photovoltaic/wind system based on hydrogen storage considering LOEE and LOLE reliability indices using flower pollination algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1412-1434.
    4. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 310-331.
    5. Hemmati, Reza & Saboori, Hedayat & Siano, Pierluigi, 2017. "Coordinated short-term scheduling and long-term expansion planning in microgrids incorporating renewable energy resources and energy storage systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 699-708.
    6. Siripha Junlakarn & Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2022. "Stochastic Modeling of Renewable Energy Sources for Capacity Credit Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-27, July.
    7. Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2021. "Generation Expansion Planning with Energy Storage Systems Considering Renewable Energy Generation Profiles and Full-Year Hourly Power Balance Constraints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-25, September.
    8. Heuberger, Clara F. & Rubin, Edward S. & Staffell, Iain & Shah, Nilay & Mac Dowell, Niall, 2017. "Power capacity expansion planning considering endogenous technology cost learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 831-845.
    9. Hemmati, Reza & Saboori, Hedayat & Jirdehi, Mehdi Ahmadi, 2016. "Multistage generation expansion planning incorporating large scale energy storage systems and environmental pollution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 636-645.
    10. Yu, Hsiang-Hua & Chang, Kuo-Hao & Hsu, Hsin-Wei & Cuckler, Robert, 2019. "A Monte Carlo simulation-based decision support system for reliability analysis of Taiwan’s power system: Framework and empirical study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 252-262.
    11. Wierzbowski, Michal & Lyzwa, Wojciech & Musial, Izabela, 2016. "MILP model for long-term energy mix planning with consideration of power system reserves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 93-111.
    12. Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2022. "Possible Pathways toward Carbon Neutrality in Thailand’s Electricity Sector by 2050 through the Introduction of H 2 Blending in Natural Gas and Solar PV with BESS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xian Huang & Kun Liu, 2023. "Impact of Electricity Price Expectation in the Planning Period on the Evolution of Generation Expansion Planning in the Market Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-21, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2021. "Generation Expansion Planning with Energy Storage Systems Considering Renewable Energy Generation Profiles and Full-Year Hourly Power Balance Constraints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E., 2019. "Review of models for integrating renewable energy in the generation expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1573-1587.
    3. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    4. Scott, Ian J. & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Botterud, Audun & Silva, Carlos A., 2019. "Clustering representative days for power systems generation expansion planning: Capturing the effects of variable renewables and energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Vrionis, Constantinos & Tsalavoutis, Vasilios & Tolis, Athanasios, 2020. "A Generation Expansion Planning model for integrating high shares of renewable energy: A Meta-Model Assisted Evolutionary Algorithm approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    7. Tong Koecklin, Manuel & Fitiwi, Desta & de Carolis, Joseph F. & Curtis, John, 2020. "Renewable electricity generation and transmission network developments in light of public opposition: Insights from Ireland," Papers WP653, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A. Ismael F., 2021. "A review of co-optimization approaches for operational and planning problems in the energy sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Fitiwi, Desta Z. & Lynch, Muireann & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "Enhanced network effects and stochastic modelling in generation expansion planning: Insights from an insular power system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Seyed Hamed Jalalzad Mahvizani & Hossein Yektamoghadam & Rouzbeh Haghighi & Majid Dehghani & Amirhossein Nikoofard & Mahdi Khosravy & Tomonobu Senjyu, 2022. "A Game Theory Approach Using the TLBO Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning by Applying Carbon Curtailment Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Pavičević, Matija & Kavvadias, Konstantinos & Pukšec, Tomislav & Quoilin, Sylvain, 2019. "Comparison of different model formulations for modelling future power systems with high shares of renewables – The Dispa-SET Balkans model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Ji, Ling & Huang, Guo-He & Xie, Yu-Lei & Niu, Dong-Xiao & Song, Yi-Hang, 2017. "Explicit cost-risk tradeoff for renewable portfolio standard constrained regional power system expansion: A case study of Guangdong Province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 125-136.
    13. Fitiwi, Desta & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Bertsch, Valentin, 2019. "Optimal development of electricity generation mix considering fossil fuel phase-out and strategic multi-area interconnection," Papers WP616, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Majid Dehghani & Mohammad Taghipour & Saleh Sadeghi Gougheri & Amirhossein Nikoofard & Gevork B. Gharehpetian & Mahdi Khosravy, 2021. "A Deep Learning-Based Approach for Generation Expansion Planning Considering Power Plants Lifetime," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Yeganefar, Ali & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza & Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohammad Kazem, 2020. "Improvement of representative days selection in power system planning by incorporating the extreme days of the net load to take account of the variability and intermittency of renewable resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    16. Kim, Sunwoo & Choi, Yechan & Park, Joungho & Adams, Derrick & Heo, Seongmin & Lee, Jay H., 2024. "Multi-period, multi-timescale stochastic optimization model for simultaneous capacity investment and energy management decisions for hybrid Micro-Grids with green hydrogen production under uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 190(PA).
    17. Moradi-Sepahvand, Mojtaba & Amraee, Turaj, 2021. "Integrated expansion planning of electric energy generation, transmission, and storage for handling high shares of wind and solar power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    18. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    19. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    20. Rodgers, Mark & Coit, David & Felder, Frank & Carlton, Annmarie, 2019. "Assessing the effects of power grid expansion on human health externalities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 92-104.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:21:p:7854-:d:950972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.