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A hybrid spatio-temporal forecasting of solar generating resources for grid integration

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  • Nam, SeungBeom
  • Hur, Jin

Abstract

Recently, the installed solar generating resources have been increasing rapidly. Consequently, forecasting for solar generating resources are becoming an important work to integrate utility-scale solar generating resources into power systems. As solar generating resources are variable, uncontrollable, and uncertain, accurate and reliable forecasting enables higher penetrations of solar generating resources to be deployed on the electrical power grid. Accurate forecasting of solar resources contributes to evaluation of system reserves over large geographic area and to transmission system planning. To increase the penetration of solar generating resources on the electric power grid, the accurate power forecasting of geographically distributed solar generating resources is needed. In this paper, we propose a hybrid spatio-temporal forecasting of solar generating resources based on the naïve Bayesian classifier approach and spatial modelling approach. To validate our forecasting model, we use the empirical data from the practical solar farms in South Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Nam, SeungBeom & Hur, Jin, 2019. "A hybrid spatio-temporal forecasting of solar generating resources for grid integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 503-510.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:177:y:2019:i:c:p:503-510
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.127
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    1. Antonio Bracale & Pierluigi Caramia & Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita Di Fazio & Gabriella Ferruzzi, 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, February.
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    2. Lima, Marcello Anderson F.B. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M. & Braga, Arthur P.S., 2020. "Improving solar forecasting using Deep Learning and Portfolio Theory integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Mejia, Mario A. & Melo, Joel D. & Zambrano-Asanza, Sergio & Padilha-Feltrin, Antonio, 2020. "Spatial-temporal growth model to estimate the adoption of new end-use electric technologies encouraged by energy-efficiency programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. He Yin & Hai Lan & Ying-Yi Hong & Zhuangwei Wang & Peng Cheng & Dan Li & Dong Guo, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Shipboard Power Systems with New Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-44, February.
    7. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Fan, Siyuan & Wang, Yu & Cao, Shengxian & Zhao, Bo & Sun, Tianyi & Liu, Peng, 2022. "A deep residual neural network identification method for uneven dust accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) panels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    9. Gyeongmin Kim & Jin Hur, 2021. "A Short-Term Power Output Forecasting Based on Augmented Naïve Bayes Classifiers for High Wind Power Penetrations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-12, November.
    10. Zhao, Wei & Zhang, Haoran & Zheng, Jianqin & Dai, Yuanhao & Huang, Liqiao & Shang, Wenlong & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "A point prediction method based automatic machine learning for day-ahead power output of multi-region photovoltaic plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Ifaei, Pouya & Nazari-Heris, Morteza & Tayerani Charmchi, Amir Saman & Asadi, Somayeh & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2023. "Sustainable energies and machine learning: An organized review of recent applications and challenges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    12. Rai, Amit & Shrivastava, Ashish & Jana, Kartick C., 2023. "Differential attention net: Multi-directed differential attention based hybrid deep learning model for solar power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).

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