IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i24p17005-d1007675.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: A Review

Author

Listed:
  • Kelachukwu J. Iheanetu

    (Fort Hare Institute of Technology, University of Fort Hare, Alice 5700, South Africa)

Abstract

The recent global warming effect has brought into focus different solutions for combating climate change. The generation of climate-friendly renewable energy alternatives has been vastly improved and commercialized for power generation. As a result of this industrial revolution, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have drawn much attention as a power generation source for varying applications, including the main utility-grid power supply. There has been tremendous growth in both on- and off-grid solar PV installations in the last few years. This trend is expected to continue over the next few years as government legislation and awareness campaigns increase to encourage a shift toward using renewable energy alternatives. Despite the numerous advantages of solar PV power generation, the highly variable nature of the sun’s irradiance in different seasons of various geopolitical areas/regions can significantly affect the expected energy yield. This variation directly impacts the profitability or economic viability of the system, and cannot be neglected. To overcome this challenge, various procedures have been applied to forecast the generated solar PV energy. This study provides a comprehensive and systematic review of recent advances in solar PV power forecasting techniques with a focus on data-driven procedures. It critically analyzes recent studies on solar PV power forecasting to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques or models implemented. The clarity provided will form a basis for higher accuracy in future models and applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelachukwu J. Iheanetu, 2022. "Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:17005-:d:1007675
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/17005/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/17005/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abbassi, Abdelkader & Abbassi, Rabeh & Heidari, Ali Asghar & Oliva, Diego & Chen, Huiling & Habib, Arslan & Jemli, Mohamed & Wang, Mingjing, 2020. "Parameters identification of photovoltaic cell models using enhanced exploratory salp chains-based approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Ahmed Ginidi & Sherif M. Ghoneim & Abdallah Elsayed & Ragab El-Sehiemy & Abdullah Shaheen & Attia El-Fergany, 2021. "Gorilla Troops Optimizer for Electrically Based Single and Double-Diode Models of Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Leva, S. & Dolara, A. & Grimaccia, F. & Mussetta, M. & Ogliari, E., 2017. "Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 88-100.
    4. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    5. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & Andres Muñoz-Jimenez & Pedro M. Lara-Santillan, 2013. "Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-9, November.
    6. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    7. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    8. Wang, Guochang & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "One-day-ahead daily power forecasting of photovoltaic systems based on partial functional linear regression models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 469-478.
    9. Yu, Kunjie & Liang, J.J. & Qu, B.Y. & Cheng, Zhiping & Wang, Heshan, 2018. "Multiple learning backtracking search algorithm for estimating parameters of photovoltaic models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 408-422.
    10. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    11. Khanna, Vandana & Das, B.K. & Bisht, Dinesh & Vandana, & Singh, P.K., 2015. "A three diode model for industrial solar cells and estimation of solar cell parameters using PSO algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 105-113.
    12. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2004. "Use of artificial neural networks for mapping of solar potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 273-286, March.
    13. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    14. Dambreville, Romain & Blanc, Philippe & Chanussot, Jocelyn & Boldo, Didier, 2014. "Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 291-300.
    15. Antonio Bracale & Pierluigi Caramia & Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita Di Fazio & Gabriella Ferruzzi, 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, February.
    16. Strzalka, Aneta & Alam, Nazmul & Duminil, Eric & Coors, Volker & Eicker, Ursula, 2012. "Large scale integration of photovoltaics in cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 413-421.
    17. Diego Oliva & Ahmed A. Ewees & Mohamed Abd El Aziz & Aboul Ella Hassanien & Marco Peréz-Cisneros, 2017. "A Chaotic Improved Artificial Bee Colony for Parameter Estimation of Photovoltaic Cells," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, June.
    18. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2021. "Deep learning based forecasting of photovoltaic power generation by incorporating domain knowledge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. De Giorgi, M.G. & Malvoni, M. & Congedo, P.M., 2016. "Comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on hybrid group method of data handling networks and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 360-373.
    20. Alberto Dolara & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Emanuele Ogliari, 2015. "A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    21. Promphak Dawan & Kobsak Sriprapha & Songkiate Kittisontirak & Terapong Boonraksa & Nitikorn Junhuathon & Wisut Titiroongruang & Surasak Niemcharoen, 2020. "Comparison of Power Output Forecasting on the Photovoltaic System Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems and Particle Swarm Optimization-Artificial Neural Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    22. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2010. "Application of chaotic ant swarm optimization in electric load forecasting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5830-5839, October.
    23. Ayang, Albert & Wamkeue, René & Ouhrouche, Mohand & Djongyang, Noël & Essiane Salomé, Ndjakomo & Pombe, Joseph Kessel & Ekemb, Gabriel, 2019. "Maximum likelihood parameters estimation of single-diode model of photovoltaic generator," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 111-121.
    24. Ebrahimi, S. Mohammadreza & Salahshour, Esmaeil & Malekzadeh, Milad & Francisco Gordillo,, 2019. "Parameters identification of PV solar cells and modules using flexible particle swarm optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 358-372.
    25. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    26. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gülsah Erdogan & Wiem Fekih Hassen, 2023. "Charging Scheduling of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems for EV Charging Stations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-29, September.
    2. Luka Djordjević & Jasmina Pekez & Borivoj Novaković & Mihalj Bakator & Mića Djurdjev & Dragan Ćoćkalo & Saša Jovanović, 2023. "Increasing Energy Efficiency of Buildings in Serbia—A Case of an Urban Neighborhood," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Wilson Castillo-Rojas & Fernando Medina Quispe & César Hernández, 2023. "Photovoltaic Energy Forecast Using Weather Data through a Hybrid Model of Recurrent and Shallow Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-25, July.
    5. Marian Kampik & Marcin Fice & Adam Pilśniak & Krzysztof Bodzek & Anna Piaskowy, 2023. "An Analysis of Energy Consumption in Small- and Medium-Sized Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    2. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    3. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Wolfram Rozas & Rafael Pastor-Vargas & Angel Miguel García-Vico & José Carpio, 2023. "Consumption–Production Profile Categorization in Energy Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-27, October.
    7. Choulli, Imade & Elyaqouti, Mustapha & Arjdal, El hanafi & Ben hmamou, Dris & Saadaoui, Driss & Lidaighbi, Souad & Elhammoudy, Abdelfattah & Abazine, Ismail, 2023. "Hybrid optimization based on the analytical approach and the particle swarm optimization algorithm (Ana-PSO) for the extraction of single and double diode models parameters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    8. Li, Shuijia & Gong, Wenyin & Gu, Qiong, 2021. "A comprehensive survey on meta-heuristic algorithms for parameter extraction of photovoltaic models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Qais, Mohammed H. & Hasanien, Hany M. & Alghuwainem, Saad, 2020. "Parameters extraction of three-diode photovoltaic model using computation and Harris Hawks optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Hazlie Mokhlis & Ziyad M. Almohaimeed & Munir Azam Muhammad & Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin & Rizwan Akram & Muhammad Majid Hussain, 2022. "An Hour-Ahead PV Power Forecasting Method Based on an RNN-LSTM Model for Three Different PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    11. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2021. "Deep learning based forecasting of photovoltaic power generation by incorporating domain knowledge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Elena Collino & Dario Ronzio, 2021. "Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, February.
    13. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Wei Li & Hui Ren & Ping Chen & Yanyang Wang & Hailong Qi, 2020. "Key Operational Issues on the Integration of Large-Scale Solar Power Generation—A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-25, November.
    15. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Mehmet Yesilbudak, 2021. "Parameter Extraction of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules Using Grey Wolf Optimizer with Dimension Learning-Based Hunting Search Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-27, September.
    17. Ahmed Ginidi & Sherif M. Ghoneim & Abdallah Elsayed & Ragab El-Sehiemy & Abdullah Shaheen & Attia El-Fergany, 2021. "Gorilla Troops Optimizer for Electrically Based Single and Double-Diode Models of Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-28, August.
    18. Mohamed Abdel-Basset & Reda Mohamed & Ripon K. Chakrabortty & Michael J. Ryan & Attia El-Fergany, 2021. "An Improved Artificial Jellyfish Search Optimizer for Parameter Identification of Photovoltaic Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-33, March.
    19. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Hegazy Rezk & A. G. Olabi & Tabbi Wilberforce & Enas Taha Sayed, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review and Application of Metaheuristics in Solving the Optimal Parameter Identification Problems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:17005-:d:1007675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.