IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i10p1669-d116114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Ni

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Shengxian Zhuang

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Hanmin Sheng

    (School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Song Wang

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

  • Jian Xiao

    (School of Electric Engineering, Southwest Jiangtong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

Abstract

High quality photovoltaic (PV) power prediction intervals (PIs) are essential to power system operation and planning. To improve the reliability and sharpness of PIs, in this paper, a new method is proposed, which involves the model uncertainties and noise uncertainties, and PIs are constructed with a two-step formulation. In the first step, the variance of model uncertainties is obtained by using extreme learning machine to make deterministic forecasts of PV power. In the second stage, innovative PI-based cost function is developed to optimize the parameters of ELM and noise uncertainties are quantization in terms of variance. The performance of the proposed approach is examined by using the PV power and meteorological data measured from 1kW rooftop DC micro-grid system. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comparing the experimental analysis with other benchmarking methods, and the results exhibit a superior performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Ni & Shengxian Zhuang & Hanmin Sheng & Song Wang & Jian Xiao, 2017. "An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:10:p:1669-:d:116114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/10/1669/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/10/1669/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    2. Antonio Bracale & Pierluigi Caramia & Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita Di Fazio & Gabriella Ferruzzi, 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Li, Song & Goel, Lalit & Wang, Peng, 2016. "An ensemble approach for short-term load forecasting by extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-29.
    4. Simoes, Sofia & Zeyringer, Marianne & Mayr, Dieter & Huld, Thomas & Nijs, Wouter & Schmidt, Johannes, 2017. "Impact of different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and PV electricity generation in large energy system models: A case study for Austria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 183-198.
    5. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using exponential smoothing state space model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1104-1113.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nubia Ilia Ponce de León Puig & Leonardo Acho & José Rodellar, 2018. "Design and Experimental Implementation of a Hysteresis Algorithm to Optimize the Maximum Power Point Extracted from a Photovoltaic System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Xiaoyu Zhang & Zhe Shu & Rui Wang & Tao Zhang & Yabing Zha, 2018. "Short-Term Load Interval Prediction Using a Deep Belief Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    5. Dongxiao Niu & Di Pu & Shuyu Dai, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Cervone, Guido & Delle Monache, Luca & Graditi, Giorgio & Jacobone, Francesca, 2016. "Optimal bidding in a Day-Ahead energy market for Micro Grid under uncertainty in renewable energy production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 194-202.
    2. Kelachukwu J. Iheanetu, 2022. "Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Heng, Jiani & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liye & Lu, Haiyan, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on frequent pattern growth algorithm and multi-objective optimization for solar radiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 845-866.
    4. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Nearest-neighbor methodology for prediction of intra-hour global horizontal and direct normal irradiances," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-782.
    5. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2018. "Quantile Regression Post-Processing of Weather Forecast for Short-Term Solar Power Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    7. Yang, Dazhi & Wu, Elynn & Kleissl, Jan, 2019. "Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1499-1519.
    8. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    9. Fatemi, Seyyed A. & Kuh, Anthony & Fripp, Matthias, 2018. "Parametric methods for probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(PA), pages 666-676.
    10. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    11. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    13. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Schinke-Nendza, A. & von Loeper, F. & Osinski, P. & Schaumann, P. & Schmidt, V. & Weber, C., 2021. "Probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power supply — A hybrid approach using D-vine copulas to model spatial dependencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    15. Kabir, M.N. & Mishra, Y. & Bansal, R.C., 2016. "Probabilistic load flow for distribution systems with uncertain PV generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 343-351.
    16. Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.
    17. Zeyringer, Marianne & Fais, Birgit & Keppo, Ilkka & Price, James, 2018. "The potential of marine energy technologies in the UK – Evaluation from a systems perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1281-1293.
    18. Qu, Zhijian & Xu, Juan & Wang, Zixiao & Chi, Rui & Liu, Hanxin, 2021. "Prediction of electricity generation from a combined cycle power plant based on a stacking ensemble and its hyperparameter optimization with a grid-search method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    19. Di Somma, M. & Graditi, G. & Heydarian-Forushani, E. & Shafie-khah, M. & Siano, P., 2018. "Stochastic optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources with renewables considering economic and environmental aspects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 272-287.
    20. Cocco Mariani, Viviana & Hennings Och, Stephan & dos Santos Coelho, Leandro & Domingues, Eric, 2019. "Pressure prediction of a spark ignition single cylinder engine using optimized extreme learning machine models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 204-221.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:10:p:1669-:d:116114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.