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Uncertainty and differences in GHG emissions between electric and conventional gasoline vehicles with implications for transport policy making

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  • Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N.

Abstract

There is a huge uncertainty in the GHG emissions reduction potential with transport electrification. The typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) practice of modeling a pathway by reducing what is known about a model parameter to a single value to produce a single-point GHG emissions estimate has led to reports in literature on the GHG emissions differences between Electric Vehicles (EV) and conventional Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) to range significantly from below 10% to above 60%. In this study we performed a LCA, combined with a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation, to determine the uncertainty in GHG emission differences between EVs and gasoline ICEs, by taking into account of all the possible variations that may affect the lifecycle GHG emissions estimates for EVs and ICEs based on the technologies already available in the market today. This study provides insights into the relative importance of the factors driving the lifecycle GHG emissions difference between the EVs and ICEs, and a measure of the probability for EVs providing benefits over ICEs globally today and projected to 2040. This paper offers critical perspective to inform the global debates on the role of transport electrification as means to a low carbon mobility future, and the implications for policy makers.

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  • Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N., 2015. "Uncertainty and differences in GHG emissions between electric and conventional gasoline vehicles with implications for transport policy making," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:87:y:2015:i:c:p:1-7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. Paolo Falbo & Giorgio Ferrari & Giorgio Rizzini & Maren Diane Schmeck, 2020. "Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle," Papers 2012.09493, arXiv.org.
    17. Amir F. N. Abdul-Manan & Victor Gordillo Zavaleta & Avinash Kumar Agarwal & Gautam Kalghatgi & Amer A. Amer, 2022. "Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    24. Brown, Austin PhD & Fuller, Sam & Gregory, Jack, 2019. "State-of-the-Knowledge White Paper Series: How Zero-Emission Vehicle Incentives and Related Policies Affect the Market," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt28x636nr, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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