IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v84y2015icp22-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Siskos, Pelopidas
  • Capros, Pantelis
  • De Vita, Alessia

Abstract

The European Union introduced CO2 emission standards on cars as an obligation to manufacturers to reduce carbon footprint of cars in EU transportation. The car industry is already marketing low carbon emitting technologies to adjust to the 95gCO2/km target set for 2020. An alternative policy option is setting energy efficiency standards, measured as energy consumption per kilometre. A policy based on a long-term commitment on continuously decreasing standards and the choice of the focus between CO2 or energy efficiency will strongly influence car technology choice. The aim of this paper is to assess these candidate policies for the EU in terms of effectiveness, costs and emission implications until 2050 on the basis of scenarios quantified using the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy economic transport model. The scenarios assume various configurations of the standards and the assessment draws on comparisons to a Reference scenario which does not strengthen standards after 2025. The analysis shows that restructuring the EU car fleet towards significant reductions of energy consumption and CO2 emissions is affordable provided that preconditions are met regarding technology progress and development of refuelling/recharging infrastructure. CO2 standards allow a diversified use of technologies, while efficiency standards are more “risky” favouring a single technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Siskos, Pelopidas & Capros, Pantelis & De Vita, Alessia, 2015. "CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 22-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:84:y:2015:i:c:p:22-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001743
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miravete, Eugenio & Moral, Maria, 2009. "Qualitative Effects of Cash-For-Clunkers Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Green, R & Staffell, I, 2012. "The cost of domestic fuel cell micro-CHP systems," Working Papers 10044/3/9844, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    3. Huo, Hong & Yao, Zhiliang & He, Kebin & Yu, Xin, 2011. "Fuel consumption rates of passenger cars in China: Labels versus real-world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7130-7135.
    4. Offer, G.J. & Contestabile, M. & Howey, D.A. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2011. "Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1939-1950, April.
    5. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, January.
    6. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M., 2010. "Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 620-641, October.
    7. Ansar, Jasmin & Sparks, Roger, 2009. "The experience curve, option value, and the energy paradox," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1012-1020, March.
    8. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Prince, Lea, 2013. "Gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 111-117.
    9. Kromer, Matthew A. & Bandivadekar, Anup & Evans, Christopher, 2010. "Long-term greenhouse gas emission and petroleum reduction goals: Evolutionary pathways for the light-duty vehicle sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 387-397.
    10. Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson & James B. Thomson, 2004. "On SBA-guaranteed lending and economic growth," Working Papers (Old Series) 0403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Henrik Andersson, 2005. "The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market: An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 211-239, May.
    12. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldbe, 1996. "The Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency Standards," NBER Working Papers 5673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Schoots, K. & Kramer, G.J. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2010. "Technology learning for fuel cells: An assessment of past and potential cost reductions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2887-2897, June.
    14. Sergey Paltsev & Pantelis Capros, 2013. "Cost Concepts For Climate Change Mitigation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-26.
    15. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
    16. Yang, Christopher & McCollum, David L & McCarthy, Ryan & Leighty, Wayne, 2009. "Meeting an 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation by 2050: A Case Study in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2ns1q98f, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    18. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    19. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Hayashi, Fumio, 1989. "Research and Development as an Investment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8br8d266, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    20. Wilfred Beckerman & Cameron Hepburn, 2007. "Ethics of the Discount Rate in the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 187-210, January.
    21. Fosgerau, M. & Bierlaire, M., 2009. "Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 494-505, June.
    22. Castillo, Enrique & Menéndez, José María & Jiménez, Pilar & Rivas, Ana, 2008. "Closed form expressions for choice probabilities in the Weibull case," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 373-380, May.
    23. Weiss, Martin & Patel, Martin K. & Junginger, Martin & Perujo, Adolfo & Bonnel, Pierre & van Grootveld, Geert, 2012. "On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-393.
    24. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    25. Matiaske, Wenzel & Menges, Roland & Spiess, Martin, 2012. "Modifying the rebound: It depends! Explaining mobility behavior on the basis of the German socio-economic panel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 29-35.
    26. Plotkin, Steven E., 2009. "Examining fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3853, October.
    27. Greene, David L., 2012. "Rebound 2007: Analysis of U.S. light-duty vehicle travel statistics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 14-28.
    28. Dreyfus, Mark K & Viscusi, W Kip, 1995. "Rates of Time Preference and Consumer Valuations of Automobile Safety and Fuel Efficiency," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 79-105, April.
    29. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    30. Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Weibull, Jörgen W. & Lindberg, Per Olov, 2014. "Extreme values, invariance and choice probabilities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 81-95.
    31. Gül, Timur & Kypreos, Socrates & Turton, Hal & Barreto, Leonardo, 2009. "An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1423-1437.
    32. Bruderer Enzler, Heidi & Diekmann, Andreas & Meyer, Reto, 2014. "Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 524-540.
    33. Train, Kenneth, 1985. "Discount rates in consumers' energy-related decisions: A review of the literature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(12), pages 1243-1253.
    34. Daniel Krzyzanowski & Socrates Kypreos & Leonardo Barreto, 2008. "Supporting hydrogen based transportation: case studies with Global MARKAL Model," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 207-231, May.
    35. Zubaryeva, Alyona & Thiel, Christian & Barbone, Enrico & Mercier, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1622-1637.
    36. repec:imp:wpaper:9844 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Ozaki, Ritsuko & Sevastyanova, Katerina, 2011. "Going hybrid: An analysis of consumer purchase motivations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2217-2227, May.
    38. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    39. Park, Sung Y. & Zhao, Guochang, 2010. "An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 110-120, January.
    40. Hassett, Kevin A. & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1993. "Energy conservation investment : Do consumers discount the future correctly?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 710-716, June.
    41. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1997. "Endogenous Growth Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011662, December.
    42. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Travesset-Baro, Oriol & Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó. & Jover, Eric & Rosas-Casals, Marti, 2016. "Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 78-92.
    2. Pyddoke, Roger & Algers, Staffan, 2023. "Projecting CO2 emissions from the Swedish car fleet: comparing results of a model used by the European Commission and two national Swedish models," Working Papers 2023:2, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    3. Lee, Shin, 2018. "Transport policies, induced traffic and their influence on vehicle emissions in developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 264-274.
    4. Niall Farrell & Seán Lyons, 2016. "Equity impacts of energy and climate policy: who is shouldering the burden?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(5), pages 492-509, September.
    5. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    6. Damert, Matthias & Rudolph, Frederic, 2018. "Policy options for a decarbonisation of passenger cars in the EU: Recommendations based on a literature review," Wuppertal Papers 193, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
    7. Massimo Delogu & Francesco Del Pero & Marco Pierini, 2016. "Lightweight Design Solutions in the Automotive Field: Environmental Modelling Based on Fuel Reduction Value Applied to Diesel Turbocharged Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Fabio Luis Marques dos Santos & Paolo Tecchio & Fulvio Ardente & Ferenc Pekár, 2021. "User Automotive Powertrain-Type Choice Model and Analysis Using Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Siskos, Pelopidas & Zazias, Georgios & Petropoulos, Apostolos & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Capros, Pantelis, 2018. "Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 48-60.
    10. Sajid, M. Jawad & Cao, Qingren & Kang, Wei, 2019. "Transport sector carbon linkages of EU's top seven emitters," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 24-38.
    11. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Pantelis Capros, 2021. "Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Jaewon Lim & DooHwan Won, 2019. "Impact of CARB’s Tailpipe Emission Standard Policy on CO 2 Reduction among the U.S. States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Mulholland, Eamonn & O'Shea, Richard S.K. & Murphy, Jerry D. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2016. "Low carbon pathways for light goods vehicles in Ireland," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-62.
    14. Agovino, Massimiliano & Ferraro, Aniello & Garofalo, Antonio, 2023. "Are green cars an optimal and efficient choice for motorists? Evidence from Italy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 140-151.
    15. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    16. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    17. Krzysztof Zagrajek, 2021. "A Survey Data Approach for Determining the Probability Values of Vehicle-to-Grid Service Provision," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-38, November.
    18. Krzysztof Zagrajek & Józef Paska & Łukasz Sosnowski & Konrad Gobosz & Konrad Wróblewski, 2021. "Framework for the Introduction of Vehicle-to-Grid Technology into the Polish Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-30, June.
    19. Farida Shaban & Pelopidas Siskos & Christos Tjortjis, 2023. "Electromobility Prospects in Greece by 2030: A Regional Perspective on Strategic Policy Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Walter, Antonia & Held, Maximilian & Pareschi, Giacomo & Pengg, Hermann & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Decarbonizing the European Automobile Fleet: Impacts of 1.5 °C-compliant Climate Policies in Germany and Norway," FCN Working Papers 18/2020, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    21. Capros, Pantelis & Zazias, Georgios & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Kannavou, Maria & Fotiou, Theofano & Siskos, Pelopidas & De Vita, Alessia & Sakellaris, Konstantinos, 2019. "Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    2. Morton, Craig & Anable, Jillian & Yeboah, Godwin & Cottrill, Caitlin, 2018. "The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 119-130.
    3. Parry, Ian W.H. & Evans, David & Oates, Wallace E., 2014. "Are energy efficiency standards justified?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 104-125.
    4. Hirte, Georg & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2013. "The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in German metropolitan areas: A spatial general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 515-528.
    5. Sykes, Maxwell & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "No free ride to zero-emissions: Simulating a region's need to implement its own zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate to achieve 2050 GHG targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 447-460.
    6. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    7. Fischbacher, Urs & Schudy, Simeon & Teyssier, Sabrina, 2021. "Heterogeneous preferences and investments in energy saving measures," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Schleich, Joachim & Gassmann, Xavier & Faure, Corinne & Meissner, Thomas, 2016. "Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 321-331.
    10. Laurence Levin & Matthew S. Lewis & Frank A. Wolak, 2017. "High Frequency Evidence on the Demand for Gasoline," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 314-347, August.
    11. Gu, Yu & Chen, Anthony & Kitthamkesorn, Songyot, 2022. "Weibit choice models: Properties, mode choice application and graphical illustrations," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    12. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    14. Tinessa, Fiore & Marzano, Vittorio & Papola, Andrea, 2020. "Mixing distributions of tastes with a Combination of Nested Logit (CoNL) kernel: Formulation and performance analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-23.
    15. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    16. del Castillo, J.M., 2016. "A class of RUM choice models that includes the model in which the utility has logistic distributed errors," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-20.
    17. Cayla, Jean-Michel & Maizi, Nadia & Marchand, Christophe, 2011. "The role of income in energy consumption behaviour: Evidence from French households data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7874-7883.
    18. Li, Dawei & Feng, Siqi & Song, Yuchen & Lai, Xinjun & Bekhor, Shlomo, 2023. "Asymmetric closed-form route choice models: Formulations and comparative applications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    19. Densing, Martin & Turton, Hal & Bäuml, Georg, 2012. "Conditions for the successful deployment of electric vehicles – A global energy system perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 137-149.
    20. Yeh, Sonia & Burtraw, Dallas & Sterner, Thomas & Greene, David, 2021. "Tradable performance standards in the transportation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:84:y:2015:i:c:p:22-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.