Projecting CO2 emissions from the Swedish car fleet: comparing results of a model used by the European Commission and two national Swedish models

European Union Member States may want to know how far towards their national climate goals currently enacted national policies and Fit for 55 policies can take them. This study compares CO2 emissions from future car fleets and car use in Sweden projected by three models: an application of the PRIMES-TREMOVE model for Sweden, the Swedish Car Fleet Model, and the Swedish Transport Administration model. The projections use official Swedish energy price and policy trajectories as of late 2021. The results of all three models indicate that the evolution of car fleets and car use would bring the emissions from cars close to Sweden’s national goal of reducing CO2 emissions from domestic transport by 70% relative to 2010. The models’ results are very similar, although the models appear to differ considerably. The source of the CO2 emissions, i.e. the car fleet, develops differently in the different models. We discuss the similarities and differences among the models related to emissions and car fleet effects. The discussion concerns conditions prevailing before the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Two important policy implications follow from this. A government keen on achieving its national emission reduction goals may need to compensate for recent energy price changes occurring after forecasts were made by adjusting its policy instruments. Slower adjustments may create higher or even prohibitive costs of achieving goals. By regularly updating projections for exogenous price changes, such scenarios may be prevented.