IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v134y2019ics0301421519305476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Capros, Pantelis
  • Zazias, Georgios
  • Evangelopoulou, Stavroula
  • Kannavou, Maria
  • Fotiou, Theofano
  • Siskos, Pelopidas
  • De Vita, Alessia
  • Sakellaris, Konstantinos

Abstract

We extend and use the PRIMES energy model to explore pathways towards climate-neutrality in the EU by 2050 and 2070 and analyse implications on energy demand, supply and costs. We draw on the modelling, data and scenario framework developed by the authors to support the European Commission's “Clean Planet for All” communication, released in November 2018. Based on model results for numerous scenarios and sensitivity runs, we analyse key issues to explore feasibility, uncertainties, costs and priorities for climate-neutrality strategy. We suggest that a sustainable climate-neutral energy system in the EU is feasible using known technologies. We emphasise that the EU's climate and energy package for 2030 currently in legislation is not sufficient to ensure climate neutrality by 2050. We characterise as of “no-regret” options promoting energy efficiency, renewables and electrification where cost-effective. However, carbon neutrality also necessitates alternative options of “disruptive” nature. Technologies supporting the disruptive options are not yet mature in industry. High uncertainty surrounds their learning potential. Their deployment heavily depends on policies facilitating investment. The system analysis based on the model illustrates the importance of sectoral integration. We argue that hydrogen, and to a certain extent synthetic carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, are critical elements among the disruptive options.

Suggested Citation

  • Capros, Pantelis & Zazias, Georgios & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Kannavou, Maria & Fotiou, Theofano & Siskos, Pelopidas & De Vita, Alessia & Sakellaris, Konstantinos, 2019. "Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:134:y:2019:i:c:s0301421519305476
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519305476
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110960?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lechtenböhmer, Stefan & Nilsson, Lars J. & Åhman, Max & Schneider, Clemens, 2016. "Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1623-1631.
    2. O. Schmidt & A. Hawkes & A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, 2017. "The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    3. Heinen, Steve & Burke, Daniel & O'Malley, Mark, 2016. "Electricity, gas, heat integration via residential hybrid heating technologies – An investment model assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 906-919.
    4. Siskos, Pelopidas & Capros, Pantelis & De Vita, Alessia, 2015. "CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 22-34.
    5. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    6. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
    7. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    8. Pérez-Fortes, Mar & Schöneberger, Jan C. & Boulamanti, Aikaterini & Tzimas, Evangelos, 2016. "Methanol synthesis using captured CO2 as raw material: Techno-economic and environmental assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 718-732.
    9. Herz, Gregor & Reichelt, Erik & Jahn, Matthias, 2018. "Techno-economic analysis of a co-electrolysis-based synthesis process for the production of hydrocarbons," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 309-320.
    10. Azadeh Maroufmashat & Michael Fowler, 2017. "Transition of Future Energy System Infrastructure; through Power-to-Gas Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    12. Dimitriou, Ioanna & Goldingay, Harry & Bridgwater, Anthony V., 2018. "Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of Biomass to Liquid (BTL) systems for transport fuel production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 160-175.
    13. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
    14. Götz, Manuel & Lefebvre, Jonathan & Mörs, Friedemann & McDaniel Koch, Amy & Graf, Frank & Bajohr, Siegfried & Reimert, Rainer & Kolb, Thomas, 2016. "Renewable Power-to-Gas: A technological and economic review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1371-1390.
    15. Greg H. Rau & Heather D. Willauer & Zhiyong Jason Ren, 2018. "The global potential for converting renewable electricity to negative-CO2-emissions hydrogen," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 621-625, July.
    16. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential of Power-to-Methane in the EU energy transition to a low carbon system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 323-340.
    17. Schlachtberger, D.P. & Brown, T. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2017. "The benefits of cooperation in a highly renewable European electricity network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 469-481.
    18. Sergey Paltsev & Pantelis Capros, 2013. "Cost Concepts For Climate Change Mitigation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-26.
    19. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    20. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    21. Valerie Eveloy & Tesfaldet Gebreegziabher, 2018. "A Review of Projected Power-to-Gas Deployment Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-52, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    2. Eveloy, Valerie, 2019. "Hybridization of solid oxide electrolysis-based power-to-methane with oxyfuel combustion and carbon dioxide utilization for energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 550-571.
    3. Stavroula Evangelopoulou & Alessia De Vita & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Energy System Modelling of Carbon-Neutral Hydrogen as an Enabler of Sectoral Integration within a Decarbonization Pathway," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Baena-Moreno, Francisco M. & Pastor-Pérez, Laura & Zhang, Zhien & Reina, T.R., 2020. "Stepping towards a low-carbon economy. Formic acid from biogas as case of study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Quarton, Christopher J. & Samsatli, Sheila, 2020. "The value of hydrogen and carbon capture, storage and utilisation in decarbonising energy: Insights from integrated value chain optimisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    6. Yilmaz, Hasan Ümitcan & Kimbrough, Steven O. & van Dinther, Clemens & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Power-to-gas: Decarbonization of the European electricity system with synthetic methane," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    7. Daniarta, S. & Sowa, D. & Błasiak, P. & Imre, A.R. & Kolasiński, P., 2024. "Techno-economic survey of enhancing Power-to-Methane efficiency via waste heat recovery from electrolysis and biomethanation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Langenmayr, Uwe & Ruppert, Manuel, 2023. "Renewable origin, additionality, temporal and geographical correlation – eFuels production in Germany under the RED II regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    9. Decker, Maximilian & Schorn, Felix & Samsun, Remzi Can & Peters, Ralf & Stolten, Detlef, 2019. "Off-grid power-to-fuel systems for a market launch scenario – A techno-economic assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1099-1109.
    10. Janke, Leandro & McDonagh, Shane & Weinrich, Sören & Murphy, Jerry & Nilsson, Daniel & Hansson, Per-Anders & Nordberg, Åke, 2020. "Optimizing power-to-H2 participation in the Nord Pool electricity market: Effects of different bidding strategies on plant operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 820-836.
    11. Ikäheimo, Jussi & Weiss, Robert & Kiviluoma, Juha & Pursiheimo, Esa & Lindroos, Tomi J., 2022. "Impact of power-to-gas on the cost and design of the future low-carbon urban energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    12. Morgenthaler, Simon & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Witthaut, Dirk, 2020. "Optimal system layout and locations for fully renewable high temperature co-electrolysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    13. Carlos V. Miguel & Adélio Mendes & Luís M. Madeira, 2018. "An Overview of the Portuguese Energy Sector and Perspectives for Power-to-Gas Implementation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Máté Zavarkó & Attila R. Imre & Gábor Pörzse & Zoltán Csedő, 2021. "Past, Present and Near Future: An Overview of Closed, Running and Planned Biomethanation Facilities in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-27, September.
    15. Böhm, Hans & Zauner, Andreas & Rosenfeld, Daniel C. & Tichler, Robert, 2020. "Projecting cost development for future large-scale power-to-gas implementations by scaling effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    16. Mikulčić, Hrvoje & Ridjan Skov, Iva & Dominković, Dominik Franjo & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Manan, Zainuddin Abdul & Tan, Raymond & Duić, Neven & Hidayah Mohamad, Siti Nur & Wang, Xuebin, 2019. "Flexible Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies in future energy systems and the utilization pathways of captured CO2," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Koj, Jan Christian & Wulf, Christina & Zapp, Petra, 2019. "Environmental impacts of power-to-X systems - A review of technological and methodological choices in Life Cycle Assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 865-879.
    18. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Kolb, Sebastian & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Frank, Jonas & Dettelbacher, Johannes & Ludwig, Ralf & Karl, Jürgen & Dillig, Marius, 2021. "Scenarios for the integration of renewable gases into the German natural gas market – A simulation-based optimisation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Andrade, Carlos & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2022. "The role of power-to-gas in the integration of variable renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:134:y:2019:i:c:s0301421519305476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.