IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v58y2013icp284-294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Sheng
  • Kyle, G. Page
  • Yu, Sha
  • Clarke, Leon E.
  • Eom, Jiyong
  • Luckow, Patrick
  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • Edmonds, James A.

Abstract

The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Sheng & Kyle, G. Page & Yu, Sha & Clarke, Leon E. & Eom, Jiyong & Luckow, Patrick & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Zhang, Xiliang & Edmonds, James A., 2013. "Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 284-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:284-294
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513001687
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Chai, Qimin & Zhang, Xiliang, 2010. "Technologies and policies for the transition to a sustainable energy system in china," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 3995-4002.
    3. Keywan Riahi & R. Roehrl, 2000. "Energy technology strategies for carbon dioxide mitigation and sustainable development," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 89-123, June.
    4. Akashi, Osamu & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2011. "A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1855-1867.
    5. Andersen, Trude Berg & Nilsen, Odd Bjarte & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2011. "How is demand for natural gas determined across European industrial sectors?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5499-5508, September.
    6. Gielen, Dolf & Taylor, Michael, 2007. "Modelling industrial energy use: The IEAs Energy Technology Perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 889-912, July.
    7. Murphy, Rose & Rivers, Nic & Jaccard, Mark, 2007. "Hybrid modeling of industrial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions with an application to Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 826-846, July.
    8. Hang, Leiming & Tu, Meizeng, 2007. "The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2978-2988, May.
    9. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Xie, Naiming, 2010. "The relation between Chinese economic development and energy consumption in the different periods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5189-5198, September.
    10. Miranda-da-Cruz, Sergio M., 2007. "A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: Case study of industrial development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 913-933, July.
    11. Jae Edmonds & Marshall Wise & Hugh Pitcher & Richard Richels & Tom Wigley & Chris Maccracken, 1997. "An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 311-339, December.
    12. Ke, Jing & Zheng, Nina & Fridley, David & Price, Lynn & Zhou, Nan, 2012. "Potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 739-751.
    13. Page Kyle, Leon Clarke, Steven J. Smith, Son Kim, Mayda Nathan, and Marshall Wise, 2011. "The Value of Advanced End-Use Energy Technologies in Meeting U.S. Climate Policy Goals," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    14. Lescaroux, François, 2011. "Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 66-82, January.
    15. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    16. Zhidong, Li, 2010. "Quantitative analysis of sustainable energy strategies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2149-2160, May.
    17. Schumacher, Katja & Sands, Ronald D., 2007. "Where are the industrial technologies in energy-economy models? An innovative CGE approach for steel production in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 799-825, July.
    18. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "The energy demand in the British and German industrial sectors: Heterogeneity and common factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 175-187, January.
    19. Eom, Jiyong & Calvin, Kate & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae & Kim, Sonny & Kopp, Robert & Kyle, Page & Luckow, Patrick & Moss, Richard & Patel, Pralit & Wise, Marshall, 2012. "Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 325-338.
    20. Son H. Kim, Jae Edmonds, Josh Lurz, Steven J. Smith, and Marshall Wise, 2006. "The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 63-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kermeli, Katerina & Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. & Crijns-Graus, Wina & van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Worrell, Ernst, 2022. "Improving material projections in Integrated Assessment Models: The use of a stock-based versus a flow-based approach for the iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    2. Mardones, Cristian & García, Catalina, 2020. "Effectiveness of CO2 taxes on thermoelectric power plants and industrial plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Wang, Lining & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Liu, Bo & McLeod, Jeff & Clarke, Leon E. & Chen, Wenying, 2016. "Win–Win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 244-253.
    4. Zhao, Yue & Ke, Jing & Ni, Chun Chun & McNeil, Michael & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Li, Qiqiang, 2014. "A comparative study of energy consumption and efficiency of Japanese and Chinese manufacturing industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-56.
    5. Jay Fuhrman & Andres F. Clarens & Haewon McJeon & Pralit Patel & Scott C. Doney & William M. Shobe & Shreekar Pradhan, 2020. "The role of negative emissions in meeting China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal," Papers 2010.06723, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    6. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Ochi, Yuki & Ehara, Tomoki, 2021. "Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Sheng Zhou & Alun Gu & Qing Tong & Yuefeng Guo & Xinyang Wei, 2022. "Multi‐scenario simulation on reducing CO2 emissions from China's major manufacturing industries targeting 2060," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 850-861, June.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Boskaljon, Willem & Neelis, Maarten L. & Saygin, Deger & Patel, Martin K., 2016. "Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 15-36.
    9. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Zhang, Aiping & Gao, Ji & Quan, Jinling & Zhou, Bo & Lam, Shu Kee & Zhou, Yuyu & Lin, Erda & Jiang, Kejun & Clarke, Leon E. & Zhang, Xuesong & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G.P. & Li, Hongbo & Zhou, Sheng & Gao, Sh, 2021. "The implications for energy crops under China's climate change challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Nayeah Kim & Yun Seop Hwang & Mun Ho Hwang, 2019. "New projection of GHG reduction potentials for Korea’s cement industry and comparison with Roadmap 2030," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(3), pages 499-521, May.
    12. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2015. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 229-244.
    13. Mohit Sharma & Vaibhav Chaturvedi & Pallav Purohit, 2017. "Long-term carbon dioxide and hydrofluorocarbon emissions from commercial space cooling and refrigeration in India: a detailed analysis within an integrated assessment modelling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 503-517, August.
    14. Shao, Tianming & Pan, Xunzhang & Li, Xiang & Zhou, Sheng & Zhang, Shu & Chen, Wenying, 2022. "China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    16. Zhou, Sheng & Tong, Qing & Pan, Xunzhang & Cao, Min & Wang, Hailin & Gao, Ji & Ou, Xunmin, 2021. "Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Jiang, Lu & Xue, Bing & Ma, Zhixiao & Yu, Lu & Huang, Beijia & Chen, Xingpeng, 2020. "A life-cycle based co-benefits analysis of biomass pellet production in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 445-452.
    18. Grzegorz Mentel & Waldemar Tarczyński & Marek Dylewski & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2022. "Does Renewable Energy Sector Affect Industrialization-CO 2 Emissions Nexus in Europe and Central Asia?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    19. Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Yu & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A., 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China’s power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 22-30.
    20. Lee, Hwarang & Eom, Jiyong & Cho, Cheolhung & Koo, Yoonmo, 2019. "A bottom-up model of industrial energy system with positive mathematical programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 679-690.
    21. Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "CO2 emissions from China’s lime industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 245-252.
    22. Sheng Zhou & Fei Teng & Qing Tong, 2018. "Mitigating Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) Emission from Electrical Equipment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    23. Kaixin Huang & Matthew J. Eckelman, 2022. "Appending material flows to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for projecting the physical economy of the United States," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(1), pages 294-308, February.
    24. Zhang, Shaohui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Wagner, Fabian & Cofala, Janusz, 2014. "Co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and air pollution abatement in the Chinese iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 333-345.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greening, Lorna A. & Boyd, Gale & Roop, Joseph M., 2007. "Modeling of industrial energy consumption: An introduction and context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 599-608, July.
    2. Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Yu & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A., 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China’s power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 22-30.
    3. Shi, Wenjing & Ou, Yang & Smith, Steven J. & Ledna, Catherine M. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2017. "Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 511-521.
    4. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    5. Fleiter, Tobias & Worrell, Ernst & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2011. "Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom-up energy demand models--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3099-3111, August.
    6. Zhang, Aiping & Gao, Ji & Quan, Jinling & Zhou, Bo & Lam, Shu Kee & Zhou, Yuyu & Lin, Erda & Jiang, Kejun & Clarke, Leon E. & Zhang, Xuesong & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G.P. & Li, Hongbo & Zhou, Sheng & Gao, Sh, 2021. "The implications for energy crops under China's climate change challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    8. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    9. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    10. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    11. Yan Lu & Haikun Wang & Qin’geng Wang & Yanyan Zhang & Yiyong Yu & Yu Qian, 2017. "Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 459-468, December.
    12. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2013. "Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction potential in secondary production and semi-fabrication of non-ferrous metals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-341.
    13. Amouzou, Kokou Adambounou & Naab, Jesse B. & Lamers, John P.A. & Borgemeister, Christian & Becker, Mathias & Vlek, Paul L.G., 2018. "CROPGRO-Cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water- and N- use efficiencies of cotton in the Dry Savanna of West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-96.
    14. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2018. "How (a)symmetric is the response of import demand to changes in its determinants? Evidence from European energy imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 379-394.
    15. Minyoung Roh & Seungho Jeon & Soontae Kim & Sha Yu & Almas Heshmati & Suduk Kim, 2020. "Modeling Air Pollutant Emissions in the Provincial Level Road Transportation Sector in Korea: A Case Study of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Subsidy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    17. Wise, Marshall & Hodson, Elke L. & Mignone, Bryan K. & Clarke, Leon & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Luckow, Patrick, 2015. "An approach to computing marginal land use change carbon intensities for bioenergy in policy applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 337-347.
    18. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Alberto Ansuategi & Kishore Dhavala & Pralit Patel & Anil Markandya, 2014. "New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model," Working Papers 2014-04, BC3.
    19. Dandan Zhao & Hong S. He & Wen J. Wang & Lei Wang & Haibo Du & Kai Liu & Shengwei Zong, 2018. "Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Shen, Lei & Gao, Tianming & Zhao, Jianan & Wang, Limao & Wang, Lan & Liu, Litao & Chen, Fengnan & Xue, Jingjing, 2014. "Factory-level measurements on CO2 emission factors of cement production in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 337-349.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industry energy; CO2 emission; Saturation effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:284-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.