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Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Sheng
  • Kyle, G. Page
  • Yu, Sha
  • Clarke, Leon E.
  • Eom, Jiyong
  • Luckow, Patrick
  • Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • Edmonds, James A.

Abstract

The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Sheng & Kyle, G. Page & Yu, Sha & Clarke, Leon E. & Eom, Jiyong & Luckow, Patrick & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Zhang, Xiliang & Edmonds, James A., 2013. "Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 284-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:284-294
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014
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    17. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2015. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 229-244.
    18. Zhou, Sheng & Tong, Qing & Pan, Xunzhang & Cao, Min & Wang, Hailin & Gao, Ji & Ou, Xunmin, 2021. "Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Sheng Zhou & Fei Teng & Qing Tong, 2018. "Mitigating Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) Emission from Electrical Equipment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    20. Kaixin Huang & Matthew J. Eckelman, 2022. "Appending material flows to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for projecting the physical economy of the United States," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(1), pages 294-308, February.
    21. Zhang, Shaohui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Wagner, Fabian & Cofala, Janusz, 2014. "Co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and air pollution abatement in the Chinese iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 333-345.
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