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TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales

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  • Li, Danyang
  • Chen, Wenying

Abstract

The transport sector accounts for approximately one-quarter of the energy consumption and one-fifth of carbon emissions in the world, and decarbonization of the transport sector is relatively more difficult than other sectors. In recent years, several countries have launched plans to eliminate liquid vehicles. To study the prospective impacts of the elimination policies for liquid vehicles, this research applies Global TIMES to model the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles worldwide in 6 scenarios with various elimination plans. The results show that if the prohibition policies are implemented between 2025 and 2035, energy consumption of the global transport sector will decrease by 56.0% and direct carbon emissions will decline by 84.4% in 2050 compared to the reference scenario. Furthermore, decarbonization of the power sector is crucial to mitigate indirect carbon emissions from the transport electricity use. To keep the sum of cumulative direct and indirect carbon emissions of the transport sector from 2010 to 2050 within the 2 °C limit, the carbon intensity of the power sector should decrease to 370 t/GWh, 255 t/GWh and 45 t/GWh by 2040 when countries will implement the prohibition policies from 2025 to 2035, 2030 to 2040 and 2035 to 2045, respectively. Toward the 1.5 °C target, decarbonization of the power sector should be much more radical and more actions will be essential. Electrification of the transport sector should begin even earlier (electrification rate exceeds 10% by 2020) and transport turnover should drop by more than 15% by 2050 compared to the reference scenario.

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  • Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:254:y:2019:i:c:s0306261919313145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113627
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