Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective

The low-carbon energy transformation of China is crucial for achieving the global warming target of the Paris Agreement, which is highly dependent on historical emissions levels and the future emissions pathway of various regions of the globe. Based on the Global Change Assessment Model, this study considered three scenarios from a global perspective and focused on energy consumption, CO2 emissions pathways, deeper emissions reduction (DER), and contribution to global emissions reduction in China. Compared with the Nationally Determined Contribution scenario, to achieve the target of 2 °C or 1.5 °C warming, the peak time of CO2 emissions in China should be advanced to 2025 or even to 2020, and CO2 emissions in China by 2050 should be reduced substantially by 30% or 90%, respectively. Moreover, more than 80% of the DER of 3.1 and 8.6 Gt CO2, respectively, came from the power and industrial sectors. China's contribution to global DER, especially its recent efforts, was found higher than its cumulative emissions level. Correspondingly, China's energy system should undergo substantial low-carbon transformation. By 2050, total primary energy consumption should be increased by about 20% from 2015 level, coal share should decrease to 13%–32%, natural gas share should steadily increase slowly, and the share of non-fossil-fuel energy should rise to 40%–63%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil-fuel electricity should increase substantially to 54%–77%. Sensitive analysis of baseline scenario setting shows that, it would be possible for China to achieve the target of the Paris Agreement with a higher level of emissions.