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Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

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  • Kozarcanin, S.
  • Hanna, R.
  • Staffell, I.
  • Gross, R.
  • Andresen, G.B.

Abstract

Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozarcanin, S. & Hanna, R. & Staffell, I. & Gross, R. & Andresen, G.B., 2020. "Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520301403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386
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    4. David Meyer & Robert Schoetter & Maarten Reeuwijk, 2024. "Energy and environmental impacts of air-to-air heat pumps in a mid-latitude city," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Jordi García-Céspedes & Ignasi Herms & Georgina Arnó & José Juan de Felipe, 2022. "Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling Networks Based on Shallow Geothermal Energy: A review and Possible Solutions for Mediterranean Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Hassam ur Rehman & Janne Hirvonen & Juha Jokisalo & Risto Kosonen & Kai Sirén, 2020. "EU Emission Targets of 2050: Costs and CO 2 Emissions Comparison of Three Different Solar and Heat Pump-Based Community-Level District Heating Systems in Nordic Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-31, August.
    7. Jelena Tihana & Hesham Ali & Jekaterina Apse & Janis Jekabsons & Dmitrijs Ivancovs & Baiba Gaujena & Andrei Dedov, 2023. "Hybrid Heat Pump Performance Evaluation in Different Operation Modes for Single-Family House," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Hisky Ryan Kawulur & Erwin Saraswati & Abdul Ghofar & Arum Prastiwi, 2024. "Carbon Strategy, Political Connection and Carbon Performance: Evidence from Polluting Industries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 251-264, July.
    9. Beccali, Marco & Bonomolo, Marina & Martorana, Francesca & Catrini, Pietro & Buscemi, Alessandro, 2022. "Electrical hybrid heat pumps assisted by natural gas boilers: a review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    10. Atienza-Márquez, Antonio & Domínguez Muñoz, Fernando & Fernández Hernández, Francisco & Cejudo López, José Manuel, 2022. "Domestic hot water production system in a hospital: Energy audit and evaluation of measures to boost the solar contribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    11. Sung-Hoon Seol & Ahmed A. Serageldin & Oh Kyung Kwon, 2020. "Experimental Research on a Heat Pump Applying a Ball-Circulating Type Automatic Fouling Cleaning System for Fish Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Zeyen, Elisabeth & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Brown, Tom, 2021. "Mitigating heat demand peaks in buildings in a highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    13. Golmohamadi, Hessam & Larsen, Kim Guldstrand & Jensen, Peter Gjøl & Hasrat, Imran Riaz, 2022. "Integration of flexibility potentials of district heating systems into electricity markets: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Obalanlege, Mustapha A. & Xu, Jingyuan & Markides, Christos N. & Mahmoudi, Yasser, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of a hybrid photovoltaic-thermal solar-assisted heat pump system for domestic hot water and power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 720-736.

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