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Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Fabien Cremona

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Sirje Vilbaste

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Raoul-Marie Couture

    (Norwegian Institute for Water Research
    University of Waterloo)

  • Peeter Nõges

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Tiina Nõges

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

We constructed a model chain into which regional climate-related variables (air temperature, precipitation) and a lake’s main tributary hydrological indicators (river flow, dissolved inorganic carbon) were employed for predicting the evolution of planktonic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) and zooplankton (rotifer) biomass in that lake for the mid-21st century. Simulations were based on the future climate predicted under both the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which, combined with three realistic policy-making and basin land-use evolution lead to six scenarios for future water quality. Model outputs revealed that mean annual river flow is expected to decline between 3 and 20%, depending on the scenario. Concentration of river dissolved inorganic carbon is predicted to follow the opposite trend and might soar up to twice the 2005–2014 average concentration. Lake planktonic primary producers will display quantitative changes in the future decades whereas zooplankters will not. A 2 to 10% increase in mean cyanobacteria biomass is accompanied by a stagnation (−3 to +2%) of rotifer biomass. Changes in cyanobacteria and rotifer phenology are expected: a surge of cyanobacteria biomass in winter and a shortening of the rotifer biomass spring peak. The expected quantitative changes on the biota were magnified in those scenarios where forested area conversions to cropland and water abstraction were the greatest.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Cremona & Sirje Vilbaste & Raoul-Marie Couture & Peeter Nõges & Tiina Nõges, 2017. "Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 347-361, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1894-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1894-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    2. Moe, S. Jannicke & Haande, Sigrid & Couture, Raoul-Marie, 2016. "Climate change, cyanobacteria blooms and ecological status of lakes: A Bayesian network approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 330-347.
    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    5. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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