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From laboratory to road: Modeling the divergence between official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values in the German passenger car market for the years 2001–2014

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  • Tietge, Uwe
  • Mock, Peter
  • Franco, Vicente
  • Zacharof, Nikiforos

Abstract

Official fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission values of European passenger cars are widely recognized to be unrepresentative of real-world driving. The divergence between official and real-world values undermines national vehicle taxation schemes and EU-wide CO2 standards for passenger cars, particularly since the divergence increases with new model generations. This study examines real-world fuel consumption data from more than 130,000 vehicles to investigate the development of the divergence. The analysis validates and refines a regression model developed by Ntziachristos et al. (2014), which estimates real-world fuel consumption of cars based on readily available vehicle characteristics, namely official fuel consumption values, vehicle mass, and engine capacity. The regression model yielded coefficients of determination of 0.87 or higher, but was found to underestimate fuel consumption of newer vehicles and company cars. This study proposes to add vehicle build year as a regressor to account for the increasing divergence between official and real-world fuel consumption figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Tietge, Uwe & Mock, Peter & Franco, Vicente & Zacharof, Nikiforos, 2017. "From laboratory to road: Modeling the divergence between official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values in the German passenger car market for the years 2001–2014," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 212-222.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:212-222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.021
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    1. Ntziachristos, L. & Mellios, G. & Tsokolis, D. & Keller, M. & Hausberger, S. & Ligterink, N.E. & Dilara, P., 2014. "In-use vs. type-approval fuel consumption of current passenger cars in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 403-411.
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    13. Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios & Kontses, Anastasios & Tsokolis, Dimitrios & Ntziachristos, Leonidas & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "Potential of energy efficiency technologies in reducing vehicle consumption under type approval and real world conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 365-373.
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    15. Jens F. Peters & Mercedes Burguillo & Jose M. Arranz, 2021. "Low emission zones: Effects on alternative-fuel vehicle uptake and fleet CO2 emissions," Papers 2103.13801, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
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    22. José I. Huertas & Michael Giraldo & Luis F. Quirama & Jenny Díaz, 2018. "Driving Cycles Based on Fuel Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    23. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Molden, N. & Boies, Adam M, 2019. "Using portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS) to derive more accurate estimates of fuel use and nitrogen oxides emissions from modern Euro 6 passenger cars under real-world driving conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 942-973.
    24. Fan, Pengfei & Yin, Hang & Lu, Hongyu & Wu, Yizheng & Zhai, Zhiqiang & Yu, Lei & Song, Guohua, 2023. "Which factor contributes more to the fuel consumption gap between in-laboratory vs. real-world driving conditions? An independent component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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