IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v189y2022icp1033-1045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision making on investments in photovoltaic power generation projects based on renewable portfolio standard: Perspective of real option

Author

Listed:
  • Bangjun, Wang
  • Feng, Zhaolei
  • Feng, Ji
  • Yu, Pan
  • Cui, Linyu

Abstract

It is now a main global trend to replace the renewable energy feed-in tariffs (FIT) policy with the renewable portfolio system (RPS) policy in the reform of renewable energy policy systems. To solve the practical problem that the current main studies on the decision making about investments by renewable energy enterprises mainly focus on macroeconomic aspects such as government subsidies, renewable energy FIT and carbon taxes, rather than microeconomic aspects such as RPS and the TGC market's influence, a real option model about photovoltaic power generation projects is established to study these projects' sequential decision making about optimal investment opportunity, optimal installed capacity and phased investment. The result shows that phased investment fruit in much higher investment flexibility, longer economic lives and greater project values, and fewer risks for investors as well; lower technical costs and higher TGC prices help acquire the optimal investment opportunities. The conclusions of this study help make better decision making about investments in photovoltaic power generation projects and, from the microcosmic aspect, prove influence of the RPS policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bangjun, Wang & Feng, Zhaolei & Feng, Ji & Yu, Pan & Cui, Linyu, 2022. "Decision making on investments in photovoltaic power generation projects based on renewable portfolio standard: Perspective of real option," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1033-1045.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:189:y:2022:i:c:p:1033-1045
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122002610
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.112?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Kim, Kyeongseok & Park, Hyoungbae & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2017. "Real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 918-926.
    3. Ma, Rufei & Cai, Huan & Ji, Qiang & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2021. "The impact of feed-in tariff degression on R&D investment in renewable energy: The case of the solar PV industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Song, Yan & Liu, Jun & Wei, Yuanchao & Zhang, Ming, 2021. "Study on the direct and indirect effectiveness of wind power policy: Empirical evidence from 30 provinces in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 749-763.
    5. Poponi, Daniele & Basosi, Riccardo & Kurdgelashvili, Lado, 2021. "Subsidisation cost analysis of renewable energy deployment: A case study on the Italian feed-in tariff programme for photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Liu, Da & Liu, Yumeng & Sun, Kun, 2021. "Policy impact of cancellation of wind and photovoltaic subsidy on power generation companies in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 134-147.
    7. Wu, Ting & Yang, Shuwang & Tan, Jingjing, 2020. "Impacts of government R&D subsidies on venture capital and renewable energy investment -- an empirical study in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Fan, Jing-Li & Wang, Jia-Xing & Hu, Jia-Wei & Yang, Yang & Wang, Yu, 2021. "Will China achieve its renewable portfolio standard targets? An analysis from the perspective of supply and demand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Zhou, Shan & Solomon, Barry D., 2021. "The interplay between renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power markets in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 720-729.
    10. Ciarreta, Aitor & Espinosa, Maria Paz & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, 2017. "Optimal regulation of renewable energy: A comparison of Feed-in Tariffs and Tradable Green Certificates in the Spanish electricity system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 387-399.
    11. Biondi, Tommaso & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Solar Grid Parity dynamics in Italy: A real option approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 293-302.
    12. Barbose, Galen & Wiser, Ryan & Heeter, Jenny & Mai, Trieu & Bird, Lori & Bolinger, Mark & Carpenter, Alberta & Heath, Garvin & Keyser, David & Macknick, Jordan & Mills, Andrew & Millstein, Dev, 2016. "A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 645-660.
    13. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    14. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    15. Bhattacharya, Suparna & Giannakas, Konstantinos & Schoengold, Karina, 2017. "Market and welfare effects of renewable portfolio standards in United States electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 384-401.
    16. Blazquez, Jorge & Nezamuddin, Nora & Zamrik, Tamim, 2018. "Economic policy instruments and market uncertainty: Exploring the impact on renewables adoption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 224-233.
    17. Liu, Ximei & Zeng, Ming, 2017. "Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 782-788.
    18. Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Salvador-Ponce, Jesús & Sánchez-Labrador, Natalia, 2017. "An overview of feed-in tariffs, premiums and tenders to promote electricity from biogas in the EU-28," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1366-1379.
    19. Kitzing, Lena & Mitchell, Catherine & Morthorst, Poul Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy policies in Europe: Converging or diverging?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 192-201.
    20. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
    21. Dong, Yanli & Shimada, Koji, 2017. "Evolution from the renewable portfolio standards to feed-in tariff for the deployment of renewable energy in Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 590-596.
    22. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Liu, G.Q., 2016. "Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 181-192.
    23. Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Li, Yan & Li, Hailong & McLellan, Benjamin & Chen, Siyuan, 2018. "Substitution effect of renewable portfolio standards and renewable energy certificate trading for feed-in tariff," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 426-435.
    24. Tian, Lixin & Pan, Jianglai & Du, Ruijin & Li, Wenchao & Zhen, Zaili & Qibing, Gao, 2017. "The valuation of photovoltaic power generation under carbon market linkage based on real options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 354-362.
    25. Zhao, Ge & Zhou, P. & Wen, Wen, 2021. "Feed-in tariffs, knowledge stocks and renewable energy technology innovation: The role of local government intervention," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    26. Xu, Jie & Lv, Tao & Hou, Xiaoran & Deng, Xu & Liu, Feng, 2021. "Provincial allocation of renewable portfolio standard in China based on efficiency and fairness principles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1233-1245.
    27. Fang, Debin & Zhao, Chaoyang & Kleit, Andrew N., 2019. "The impact of the under enforcement of RPS in China: An evolutionary approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    28. Li, Hong Xian & Zhang, Yitao & Li, Yan & Huang, Jiaxin & Costin, Glenn & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "Exploring payback-year based feed-in tariff mechanisms in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    29. Liu, Xiaoran & Ronn, Ehud I., 2020. "Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    30. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2010. "A comparative analysis of renewable electricity support mechanisms for Southeast Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1779-1793.
    31. Barbose, Galen & Bird, Lori & Heeter, Jenny & Flores-Espino, Francisco & Wiser, Ryan, 2015. "Costs and benefits of renewables portfolio standards in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 523-533.
    32. Dong, Changgui & Zhou, Runmin & Li, Jiaying, 2021. "Rushing for subsidies: The impact of feed-in tariffs on solar photovoltaic capacity development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    33. Yu, Biying & Zhao, Zihao & Zhao, Guangpu & An, Runying & Sun, Feihu & Li, Ru & Peng, Xiaohan, 2021. "Provincial renewable energy dispatch optimization in line with Renewable Portfolio Standard policy in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 236-252.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    3. Yang, Changhui & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu & He, Lijun, 2023. "Photovoltaic project investment based on the real options method: An analysis of the East China power grid region," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Anna Carolina Martins & Marcelo de Carvalho Pereira & Roberto Pasqualino, 2023. "Renewable Electricity Transition: A Case for Evaluating Infrastructure Investments through Real Options Analysis in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Wang, Delu & Li, Chunxiao & Mao, Jinqi & Yang, Qing, 2023. "What affects the implementation of the renewable portfolio standard? An analysis of the four-party evolutionary game," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 250-261.
    6. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Ang Yang & Xiangyu Meng & He He & Liang Wang & Jing Gao, 2022. "Towards Optimized ARMGs’ Low-Carbon Transition Investment Decision Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Chen, Si-Yuan & Xue, Meng-Tian & Wang, Zhao-Hua & Tian, Xin & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Exploring pathways of phasing out clean heating subsidies for rural residential buildings in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Ruolan Wei & Yunlong Ma & Huina Bi & Qi Dong, 2024. "ESG-Driven Investment Decisions in Photovoltaic Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Heidari, Mohammad Reza & Heravi, Gholamreza, 2024. "Development of flexible supportive policy with real options for renewable energy projects: Case of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Zhou, Xianyang & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, Hao & Zhao, Siqi & Wang, Qunwei, 2023. "Low-carbon transition of China's provincial power sector under renewable portfolio standards and carbon cap," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Yu, Xianyu & Ge, Shengxian & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Chang, Ching-Ter & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "Whether feed-in tariff can be effectively replaced or not? An integrated analysis of renewable portfolio standards and green certificate trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    3. Zhou, Dequn & Dong, Zhuojia & Sang, Xiuzhi & Wang, Qunwei & Yu, Xianyu, 2023. "Do feed-in tariff reduction and green certificate trading effectively promote regional sustainable development？," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Kwag, Kyuhyeong & Shin, Hansol & Oh, Hyobin & Yun, Sangmin & Kim, Tae Hyun & Hwang, Pyeong-Ik & Kim, Wook, 2023. "Bilevel programming approach for the quantitative analysis of renewable portfolio standards considering the electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    6. Hu, Xing & Guo, Yingying & Zheng, Yali & Liu, Lan-cui & Yu, Shiwei, 2022. "Which types of policies better promote the development of renewable energy? Evidence from China's provincial data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1373-1382.
    7. Ma, Rufei & Cai, Huan & Ji, Qiang & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2021. "The impact of feed-in tariff degression on R&D investment in renewable energy: The case of the solar PV industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Ying, Zhou & Xin-gang, Zhao & Xue-feng, Jia & Zhen, Wang, 2021. "Can the Renewable Portfolio Standards improve social welfare in China's electricity market？," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Wu, Jiaqian & Chen, Yu & Yu, Lean & Li, Guohao & Li, Jingjing, 2023. "Has the evolution of renewable energy policies facilitated the construction of a new power system for China? A system dynamics analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Kim, Byungil & Kim, Changyoon & Han, SangUk & Bae, JuHyun & Jung, Jaehoon, 2020. "Is it a good time to develop commercial photovoltaic systems on farmland? An American-style option with crop price risk," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Dong, Zhuojia & Yu, Xianyu & Chang, Ching-Ter & Zhou, Dequn & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "How does feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard evolve synergistically? An integrated approach of tripartite evolutionary game and system dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 864-877.
    12. Zhang, Hanyu & Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2023. "Deferring real options with solar renewable energy certificates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Xin-gang, Zhao & Ling-zhi, Ren & Yu-zhuo, Zhang & Guan, Wan, 2018. "Evolutionary game analysis on the behavior strategies of power producers in renewable portfolio standard," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 505-516.
    14. Casper Agaton, 2017. "Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines," International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Research, Conscientia Beam, vol. 6(2), pages 50-62.
    15. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Cai, Siqin & Guo, Dongliang & Xu, Bo, 2022. "Facing the uncertainty of renewable energy production: Production decisions of a power plant with different risk attitudes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1237-1247.
    16. Hu, Yu & Chi, Yuanying & Zhou, Wenbing & Li, Jialin & Wang, Zhengzao & Yuan, Yongke, 2023. "The interactions between renewable portfolio standards and carbon emission trading in China: An evolutionary game theory perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    17. Wang, Delu & Li, Chunxiao & Mao, Jinqi & Yang, Qing, 2023. "What affects the implementation of the renewable portfolio standard? An analysis of the four-party evolutionary game," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 250-261.
    18. Li, Tianyu & Gao, Ciwei & Chen, Tao & Jiang, Yu & Feng, Yingchun, 2022. "Medium and long-term electricity market trading strategy considering renewable portfolio standard in the transitional period of electricity market reform in Jiangsu, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2023. "Trading behavior strategy of power plants and the grid under renewable portfolio standards in China: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    20. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:189:y:2022:i:c:p:1033-1045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.