IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v306y2022ipas0306261921013040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Haomin
  • Zhang, Zaixu
  • Zhang, Tao

Abstract

The investment in shale gas green and efficient development in China faces many uncertain factors that affect the investment decision-making of enterprises, which contributes to China's low-carbon energy transformation and national energy security. Based on the characteristics of China's shale gas resource development and considering the uncertainties in the aspects of market, technology and environment, this paper proposes a real option model to evaluate investment decision-making of China’s shale gas development and uses the Least Square Monte Carlo simulation to solve the investment values and optimal investment timings of shale gas low, moderate, high and ultrahigh productivities under four combination scenarios of financial subsidy and/or carbon emission trading. The results show that the current investment environment in China is not suitable for immediate investment in shale gas development projects. Investors can invest immediately when the initial average daily production reaches at least 30 × 104 m3. And financial subsidy and carbon emission trading help advance the optimal investment timings. According to a sensitivity analysis, appropriate increases in financial subsidy, shale gas price, absolute value of the drift rate of drilling and completion cost and environmental external benefit coefficient are found to improve the investment value and advance the optimal investment timing, while drilling and completion cost and production decline rate have the opposite effect. Therefore, to stimulate the investment, the government and enterprises should adopt some measures such as addressing key problems on technology and equipment, flexibly adjusting subsidy policies and driving forward the carbon emission trading market.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Haomin & Zhang, Zaixu & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:306:y:2022:i:pa:s0306261921013040
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921013040
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich & Szolgayová, Jana & Fuss, Sabine & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 249-254.
    2. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    3. Tang, Bao-Jun & Zhou, Hui-Ling & Chen, Hao & Wang, Kai & Cao, Hong, 2017. "Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 17-26.
    4. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2021. "Using real options to value capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    5. Cooper, Jasmin & Stamford, Laurence & Azapagic, Adisa, 2018. "Economic viability of UK shale gas and potential impacts on the energy market up to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 577-590.
    6. Guoming Lai & Mulan X. Wang & Sunder Kekre & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi, 2011. "Valuation of Storage at a Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 602-616, June.
    7. Gazheli, Ardjan & van den Bergh, Jeroen, 2018. "Real options analysis of investment in solar vs. wind energy: Diversification strategies under uncertain prices and costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2693-2704.
    8. Liu, Jianye & Li, Zuxin & Luo, Dongkun & Duan, Xuqiang & Liu, Ruolei, 2020. "Shale gas production in China: A regional analysis of subsidies and suggestions for policy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Yu, Shiwei & Li, Zhenxi & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lancui, 2019. "A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    13. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    14. Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei, 2010. "A real options based model and its application to China's overseas oil investment decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 627-637, May.
    15. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    16. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    17. Fleten, S.-E. & Maribu, K.M. & Wangensteen, I., 2007. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 803-815.
    18. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    19. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    20. Bai, Yang & Meng, Jie & Meng, Fanyi & Fang, Guochang, 2020. "Stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    21. Yuan, Jiehui & Luo, Dongkun & Xia, Liangyu & Feng, Lianyong, 2015. "Policy recommendations to promote shale gas development in China based on a technical and economic evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 194-206.
    22. Odetayo, Babatunde & MacCormack, John & Rosehart, W.D. & Zareipour, Hamidreza, 2018. "A real option assessment of flexibilities in the integrated planning of natural gas distribution network and distributed natural gas-fired power generations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 257-272.
    23. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    24. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    25. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    26. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
    27. Yuan, Jiehui & Luo, Dongkun & Feng, Lianyong, 2015. "A review of the technical and economic evaluation techniques for shale gas development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-65.
    28. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    29. Larry W. Lake & John Martin & J. Douglas Ramsey & Sheridan Titman, 2013. "A Primer on the Economics of Shale Gas Production Just How Cheap is Shale Gas?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(4), pages 87-96, December.
    30. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Niu, Wente & Lu, Jialiang & Sun, Yuping & Zhang, Xiaowei & Li, Qiaojing & Cao, Xu & Liang, Pingping & Zhan, Hongming, 2024. "Techno-economic integration evaluation in shale gas development based on ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    2. Mihail Busu & Madalina Vanesa Vargas & Sorin Anagnoste, 2023. "Navigating the Intricate Relationship between Investments and Global Output: A Leontief Matrix Case Study of Romania," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Noshchenko, Olga & Hagspiel, Verena, 2024. "Environmental and economic multi-objective real options analysis: Electrification choices for field development investment planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    4. Yang, Run & Liu, Xiangui & Yu, Rongze & Hu, Zhiming & Duan, Xianggang, 2022. "Long short-term memory suggests a model for predicting shale gas production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    5. Zhou, Wei & Li, Xiangchengzhen & Qi, ZhongLi & Zhao, HaiHang & Yi, Jun, 2024. "A shale gas production prediction model based on masked convolutional neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    6. Qilong Wan & Xiaodong Miao & Chenguang Wang & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2023. "A hybrid decision support system with golden cut and bipolar q-ROFSs for evaluating the risk-based strategic priorities of fintech lending for clean energy projects," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Katende, Allan & Rutqvist, Jonny & Massion, Cody & Radonjic, Mileva, 2023. "Experimental flow-through a single fracture with monolayer proppant at reservoir conditions: A case study on Caney Shale, Southwest Oklahoma, USA," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    8. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    9. Yang, Changhui & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu & He, Lijun, 2023. "Photovoltaic project investment based on the real options method: An analysis of the East China power grid region," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    2. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    3. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    4. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    5. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    6. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    8. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Mingming Zhang & Dequn Zhou & Hao Ding & Jingliang Jin, 2016. "Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    11. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    12. Martín-Barrera, Gonzalo & Zamora-Ramírez, Constancio & González-González, José M., 2016. "Application of real options valuation for analysing the impact of public R&D financing on renewable energy projects: A company′s perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 292-301.
    13. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    15. Cheng, Cheng & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Mingming & Chen, Qiang & Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Ren, Xiaohang, 2017. "Defer option valuation and optimal investment timing of solar photovoltaic projects under different electricity market systems and support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 594-610.
    16. Gkousis, Spiros & Welkenhuysen, Kris & Harcouët-Menou, Virginie & Pogacnik, Justin & Laenen, Ben & Compernolle, Tine, 2024. "Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Li, Hailong & Mclellan, Benjamin & Zhang, Tiantian & Tan, Zhizhou, 2019. "Investment decision on shallow geothermal heating & cooling based on compound options model: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K., 2013. "Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation: A real options analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 474-482.
    19. Jia-Yue Huang & Yun-Fei Cao & Hui-Ling Zhou & Hong Cao & Bao-Jun Tang & Nan Wang, 2018. "Optimal Investment Timing and Scale Choice of Overseas Oil Projects: A Real Option Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    20. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Liu, G.Q., 2016. "Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 181-192.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:306:y:2022:i:pa:s0306261921013040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.