IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v114y2019ic27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings

Author

Listed:
  • Penizzotto, F.
  • Pringles, R.
  • Olsina, F.

Abstract

Renewable power generation based on solar energy is deemed to be a key instrument to reduce the carbon footprint of modern economies. Collectively, buildings are an energy-intensive consumption sector. Therefore, existing building rooftops are seen as a target for massively deploying photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation. Nevertheless, estimating the benefits and risks of investing in rooftop PV systems is indeed a challenging task due to the large uncertainties that affect tariffs, technology costs, and regulatory policy. After reviewing the literature and identifying the current gaps, this article develops a method based on Real Options theory for appraising investments in PV generation systems to be installed on the rooftop of existing buildings. The option value of differing the investment decision and the problem of the optimal time to invest in irreversible PV assets are addressed by an advanced valuation method based on stochastic simulation, linear regression, and backward dynamic programming. In this work, returns of self-generation PV investments are subjected to uncertainties upon declining investment costs and fluctuating electricity tariffs, which are represented by appropriate exogenous stochastic processes. In order to test the practicability of the proposed decision-making framework, the valuation of an exemplary rooftop PV-system in a government building is considered. Results show that while standard appraisal methods wrongly reject the rooftop PV project now and in the future, the option valuation method finds optimal to hold the opportunity open in order to reconsider to invest later. In addition, the method provides an objective value of the opportunity cost of using the building rooftop for another purpose. The proposed valuation approach would result in better investment allocation and faster development of distributed PV power capacity contributing thereby to enhance the sustainability of current energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:114:y:2019:i:c:27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119305167
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109308?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2014. "Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-38, May.
    2. Kim, Kyeongseok & Park, Hyoungbae & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2017. "Real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 918-926.
    3. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    4. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Murto, Pauli & Nese, Gjermund, 2002. "Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels," Working Papers in Economics 15/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    6. Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
    7. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
    8. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    9. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    13. Venetsanos, Konstantinos & Angelopoulou, Penelope & Tsoutsos, Theocharis, 2002. "Renewable energy sources project appraisal under uncertainty: the case of wind energy exploitation within a changing energy market environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 293-307, March.
    14. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4320-4333.
    15. Henao, A. & Sauma, E. & Reyes, T. & Gonzalez, A., 2017. "What is the value of the option to defer an investment in Transmission Expansion Planning? An estimation using Real Options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 194-207.
    16. Martínez Ceseña, E.A. & Mutale, J. & Rivas-Dávalos, F., 2013. "Real options theory applied to electricity generation projects: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 573-581.
    17. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Liu, G.Q., 2016. "Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 181-192.
    18. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    19. Bøckman, Thor & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Juliussen, Erik & Langhammer, Håvard J. & Revdal, Ingemar, 2008. "Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 255-267, October.
    20. Caminha-Noronha, J. C. & Marangon-Lima, J. W. & Leite-Ferreira, T. G. & Unsihuay, C. & Zambroni de Souza, A. C., 2006. "Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options," MPRA Paper 18000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2014. "Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 272-280.
    22. Gollier, Christian & Proult, David & Thais, Francoise & Walgenwitz, Gilles, 2005. "Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: Valuing modularity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 667-685, July.
    23. Vilaça Gomes, P. & Knak Neto, N. & Carvalho, L. & Sumaili, J. & Saraiva, J.T. & Dias, B.H. & Miranda, V. & Souza, S.M., 2018. "Technical-economic analysis for the integration of PV systems in Brazil considering policy and regulatory issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 199-206.
    24. Daming, You & Xiaohui, Yang & Wu, Desheng Dash & Guofan, Chen, 2014. "Option game with Poisson Jump Process in company radical technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 341-350.
    25. Lee, Shun-Chung, 2011. "Using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments: The case of wind energy technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4443-4450.
    26. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
    27. Jung, Nusrat & Moula, Munjur E. & Fang, Tingting & Hamdy, Mohamed & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Social acceptance of renewable energy technologies for buildings in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area of Finland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 813-824.
    28. Kjaerland, Frode, 2007. "A real option analysis of investments in hydropower--The case of Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5901-5908, November.
    29. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    30. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.
    31. Miranda, Raul F.C. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2015. "Technical-economic potential of PV systems on Brazilian rooftops," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 694-713.
    32. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    2. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Zhang, Mingming & Tang, Yamei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Optimal investment portfolio strategies for power enterprises under multi-policy scenarios of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Raisa Pérez-Vas & Félix Puime Guillén & Joaquín Enríquez-Díaz, 2021. "Valuation of a Company Producing and Trading Seaweed for Human Consumption: Classical Methods vs. Real Options," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Or, Bartu & Bilgin, Gozde & Akcay, Emre Caner & Dikmen, Irem & Birgonul, M. Talat, 2024. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic investments: A case from Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Jaromir Vrbka & Tomas Krulicky & Tomas Brabenec & Jan Hejda, 2020. "Determining the Increase in a Building’s Appreciation Rate Due to a Reconstruction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Einas Awad & Heba Alkhoja & Bruno S. Sergi, 2020. "Strategic business risk evaluation for sustainable energy investment and stakeholder engagement: A proposal for energy policy development in the Middle East through Khalifa funding and land subsidies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 2789-2802, September.
    8. Peng, Qiao & Liu, Weilong & Zhang, Yong & Zeng, Shihong & Graham, Byron, 2023. "Generation planning for power companies with hybrid production technologies under multiple renewable energy policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    9. Yang, Changhui & Fu, Yuting & He, Lijun & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu, 2024. "Real options analysis for regional investment decisions of household PV-ESS in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    10. Qüinny Soares Rocha & Rafaele Almeida Munis & Richardson Barbosa Gomes da Silva & Elí Wilfredo Zavaleta Aguilar & Danilo Simões, 2023. "Photovoltaic Solar Energy in Forest Nurseries: A Strategic Decision Based on Real Options Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-11, February.
    11. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Samper, M. & Coria, G. & Facchini, M., 2021. "Grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation considering tariff policies in Argentina," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Jung, Seunghoon & Jeoung, Jaewon & Kang, Hyuna & Hong, Taehoon, 2021. "Optimal planning of a rooftop PV system using GIS-based reinforcement learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    15. Cheng, Cheng & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Shulin & Jurasz, Jakub & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Rethinking the evaluation of solar photovoltaic projects under YieldCo mode: A real option perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    16. Yang, Changhui & Jiang, Qi & Cui, Yangyu & He, Lijun, 2023. "Photovoltaic project investment based on the real options method: An analysis of the East China power grid region," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Ma, Yiju & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2022. "Valuation of compound real options for co-investment in residential battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    18. Dimanchev, Emil & Fleten, Stein-Erik & MacKenzie, Don & Korpås, Magnus, 2023. "Accelerating electric vehicle charging investments: A real options approach to policy design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    19. Zhang, Ruixiaoxiao & Shimada, Koji & Ni, Meng & Shen, Geoffrey Q.P. & Wong, Johnny K.W., 2020. "Low or No subsidy? Proposing a regional power grid based wind power feed-in tariff benchmark price mechanism in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    3. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    4. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    6. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    7. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    8. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    9. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    11. Liu, Xiaoran & Ronn, Ehud I., 2020. "Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    13. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Lotti, Giovanni, 2020. "A simple-to-implement real options method for the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Sim, Jaehun & Kim, Chae-Soo, 2019. "The value of renewable energy research and development investments with default consideration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 530-539.
    15. Mingming Zhang & Dequn Zhou & Hao Ding & Jingliang Jin, 2016. "Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Yanbin Li & Min Wu & Zhen Li, 2018. "A Real Options Analysis for Renewable Energy Investment Decisions under China Carbon Trading Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-10, July.
    17. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    18. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    19. Liu, Haomin & Zhang, Zaixu & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Shale gas investment decision-making: Green and efficient development under market, technology and environment uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    20. Jungmin An & Dong-Kwan Kim & Jinyeong Lee & Sung-Kwan Joo, 2021. "Least Squares Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Decision-Making Method for Photovoltaic Investment in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-14, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:114:y:2019:i:c:27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.