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Petroleum Prospect Valuation: The Option to Drill Again

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  • James L. Smith

Abstract

We examine the value of an exploration prospect that is to be exploited via a series of possibly dependent trials. Failure on any particular trial is assumed to convey bad news, but also provides an option to try again. The pattern and strength of dependence among trials determines the value of this option, and therefore also influences the value of the underlying prospect. We describe the solution to this valuation problem, examine the behavior of the option premium, and characterize potential errors that are inherent in two ad hoc procedures that are often used to estimate prospect value. We demonstrate that the impact of dependence among trials is monotonic: each increase in the degree of dependence results in a further reduction in expected value of the prospect. We also characterize the particular pattern of dependence that is implied by a plausible model of exploratory risk.

Suggested Citation

  • James L. Smith, 2005. "Petroleum Prospect Valuation: The Option to Drill Again," The Energy Journal, , vol. 26(4), pages 53-68, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:26:y:2005:i:4:p:53-68
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No4-4
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    1. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    2. Niall Farrell, Mel T. Devine, William T. Lee, James P. Gleeson, and Sean Lyons, 2017. "Specifying An Efficient Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2007. "Future oil production in Brazil--Estimates based on a Hubbert model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2360-2367, April.
    4. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2013. "Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 532-541.
    5. Liu, Xiaoran & Ronn, Ehud I., 2020. "Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Smith, James L., 2014. "A parsimonious model of tax avoidance and distortions in petroleum exploration and development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 140-157.
    7. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil exploration; valuation; risk; uncertainty; drilling; oil fields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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