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Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China's regional economy: A dynamic CGE analysis

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  • Dong, Baomin
  • Ma, Xili
  • Wang, Ningjing
  • Wei, Weixian

Abstract

A multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model is constructed in this paper to explore the macroeconomic effects of international oil price shocks and RMB exchange rate changes on China. The results show that (1) in terms of regional development differences, the decrease in international oil prices and depreciation of RMB are both conducive to economic growth, although the impact of RMB devaluation is more obvious. Increases in international oil prices will further widen the output gap between the rich and the poor regions, whereas oil price decreases and RMB devaluation will narrow the regional development differences. (2) In terms of employment, the depreciation of the exchange rate and the decline in international oil prices will help increase the employment rate in most regions, but oil price hikes will be most beneficial for improving oil industry employment in the northeast. (3) The impact of oil price volatility is asymmetric. Compared with rising oil prices, falling oil prices have significantly greater effects on GDP, industrial output, employment and other aspects. Furthermore, the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations and oil price changes on the regional economy exhibit a time lag.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Baomin & Ma, Xili & Wang, Ningjing & Wei, Weixian, 2020. "Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China's regional economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:86:y:2020:i:c:s0140988317303171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.09.014
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International oil price; RMB exchange rate; China regional economy; Dynamic regional CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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