IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hrv/faseco/3128708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors

Author

Listed:
  • Viceira, Luis
  • Campbell, John
  • White, Joshua

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and hold only domestic Treasury bills. This paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors, because real interest rates vary over time and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls. Empirically this effect is important and can lead conservative long-term investors to hold more than half their wealth in foreign currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John & White, Joshua, 2003. "Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors," Scholarly Articles 3128708, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3128708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3128708/campbellssrn_foreigncurrency.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    7. Jeremy J. Siegel, 1972. "Risk, Interest Rates and the Forward Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(2), pages 303-309.
    8. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    10. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    11. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    13. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    15. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    16. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    17. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    18. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    21. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-180, March.
    22. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    23. repec:fth:harver:1421 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, September.
    25. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    26. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    27. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    28. Bottazzi, Laura & Pesenti, Paolo & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "Wages, profits and the international portfolio puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 219-254, February.
    29. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-161.
    30. Kenneth A. Froot, 2019. "Currency Hedging Over Long Horizons," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 37-66, May.
    31. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    32. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    33. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    34. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    35. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    36. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Carcano, 2007. "Country and currency diversification of bond investments: do they really make sense for Swiss investors?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 95-120, March.
    2. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
    3. Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.
    4. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2014. "Currency hedge – walking on the edge?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    5. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    6. Chang Shih-Chieh Bill & Tsai Chenghsien & Hung Li-Chuan, 2005. "Incorporating Foreign Equities in the Optimal Asset Allocation of an Insurer with the Consideration for Background Risks: Models and Numerical Illustrations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty‐De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
    9. Benjamin H Cohen, 2005. "Currency choice in international bond issuance," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    10. Morse, Adair & Shive, Sophie, 2011. "Patriotism in your portfolio," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 411-440, May.
    11. Carlos Eduardo Meyer dos Santos & Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira, 2010. "Depósitos Em Moeda Estrangeira Como Hedge Para Investidores Brasileiros De Longo Prazo: Uma Aplicação Da Teoria Da Escolha Estratégica De Portfólio," Discussion Papers 1462, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    12. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
    13. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Mr. Patrick Honohan & Mr. Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 2003/146, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bykova, Anna & Jardon, Carlos M., 2017. "Lean against the wind: The moderation effect of foreign investments during the economic recession in Russia," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    16. Pablo Castañeda & Heinz Rudolph, 2010. "Portfolio Choice, Minimum Return Guarantees, and Competition in DC Pension Systems," Working Papers 39, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Feb 2010.
    17. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    18. Walker, Eduardo, 2008. "Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(6), pages 657-668, June.
    19. Suh, Sangwon, 2011. "Currency hedging failure in international equity investments and an efficient hedging strategy: The perspective of Korean investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 390-403, September.
    20. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Susan Thorp, 2004. "That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    22. Jochen M. Schmittmann, 2010. "Currency Hedging for International Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 2010/151, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Out-of-sample bond risk premium predictions: A global common factor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 155-173.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    2. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    3. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2017. "Optimal asset allocation for strategic investors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 970-987.
    6. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    8. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    10. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    11. Daniel Giamouridis & Athanasios Sakkas & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 254-291, March.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
    13. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    14. Campbell, John Y. & Chacko, George & Rodriguez, Jorge & Viceira, Luis M., 2004. "Strategic asset allocation in a continuous-time VAR model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2195-2214, October.
    15. Romain Deguest & Lionel Martellini & Vincent Milhau, 2018. "A Reinterpretation of the Optimal Demand for Risky Assets in Fund Separation Theorems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4333-4347, September.
    16. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Sørensen, Carsten & Trolle, Anders Bjerre, 2006. "Dynamic asset allocation and latent variables," Working Papers 2004-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    18. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2016. "Time-Varying Margin Requirements and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 655-683, April.
    19. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    20. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk–Return Trade-Off," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 34-44, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3128708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office for Scholarly Communication (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.