IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/920.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Willenbockel, Dirk

Abstract

The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China’s foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation of July 2005 is widely perceived as insufficient to correct China’s balance-of-payments disequilibrium and has not silenced charges that China is engaging in persistent one-sided currency manipulation. Within China there are widespread concerns regarding the adverse employment effects of a major revaluation on labour-intensive export sectors, yet the likely magnitude of these effects remains a controversial issue. The paper aims to shed light on this question by simulating the structural effects of a real exchange rate revaluation that lowers the current account surplus-GDP by 4 percentage-points using a 17-sector computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Willenbockel, Dirk, 2006. "Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment," MPRA Paper 920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:920
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/920/1/MPRA_paper_920.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris Goldstein, 2004. "Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies," Working Paper Series WP04-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    3. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
    4. Sun, Huayu & Ma, Yue, 2005. "Policy strategies to deal with revaluation pressures on the renminbi," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 103-117.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three‐Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, August.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael Dooley & Peter Garber, 2005. "Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 147-210.
    8. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    9. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    10. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
    11. Tung, Chen-Yuan & Baker, Sam, 2004. "RMB revaluation will serve China's self-interest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-335.
    12. Mark M. Spiegel, 2005. "A look at China's new exchange rate regime," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep9.
    13. Zhang, Fan & Pan, Zuohong, 2004. "Determination of China's long-run nominal exchange rate and official intervention," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 360-365.
    14. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Y.X. & Zhang, S.L. & Yang, L.Y. & Wang, Y.J. & Wang, J., 2010. "Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6629-6637, November.
    2. Debowicz, Dario & Saeed, Wajiha, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan and its general equilibrium distributional implications:," PSSP working papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. LU Chuanyi & CHEN Wenying, 2022. "Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 17(2), pages 212244-2122, June.
    4. Tang, Bo, 2015. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    5. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
    6. Meng, Xianming & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith, 2013. "The Impact of an Appreciation of the Chinese Yuan on the Global Trade," Conference papers 332340, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Hakeem Eltalla, 2013. "Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(4), pages 4221:8-4221, May.
    8. He, Y.X. & Yang, L.F. & He, H.Y. & Luo, T. & Wang, Y.J., 2011. "Electricity demand price elasticity in China based on computable general equilibrium model analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1115-1123.
    9. He, Yongxiu & Liu, Yangyang & Wang, Jianhui & Xia, Tian & Zhao, Yushan, 2014. "Low-carbon-oriented dynamic optimization of residential energy pricing in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 610-623.
    10. Zhong, Shuai & Okiyama, Mitsuru & Tokunaga, Suminori, 2015. "Impacts of Water Management System on Agricultural Production and Household Welfare within Urbanization of China: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 17, pages 1-6.
    11. Meng, Sam, 2015. "Modeling the impact of exchange rates using a multicurrency framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-231.
    12. Bliss, Christopher, 2007. "Trade, Growth, and Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199204649.
    13. Darío Debowicz & Wajiha Saeed, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment and economic development: the case of Pakistan," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21014, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    14. John Whalley & Li Wang, 2007. "Evaluating the Impure Chinese VAT Relative to a Pure Form in a Simple Monetary Trade Model with an Endogenous Trade Surplus," NBER Working Papers 13581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2012. "The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world : A global computable general equilibrium analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 1178, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Dong, Baomin & Ma, Xili & Wang, Ningjing & Wei, Weixian, 2020. "Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China's regional economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Dong Yan & Whalley John, 2011. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Yan Shi & Shumiao Jin & Klaus Seeland, 2015. "Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1731-1745, January.
    19. Yongxiu He & Yangyang Liu & Tian Xia & Min Du & Hongzhen Guo, 2014. "The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saang Joon Baak, 2006. "The Impact of the Chinese Renminbi on the Exports of the ROK and Japan to the US (ROK Economic System Series No.10)," Discussion papers 0604e, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    2. Saang Joon Baak, 2006. "The Impact of the Chinese Renminbi on the Exports of the ROK and Japan to the US (ROK Economic System Series No.10)," Discussion papers 0604, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    3. BAAK, SaangJoon, 2008. "The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-127, June.
    4. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.
    5. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "A comparison of the BEER and Penn effect models via their applications on the valuation of the Renminbi," MPRA Paper 40649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," Working Papers hal-04138871, HAL.
    9. Jinzhao Chen, 2009. "Beyond Cheap Talks: Assessing the Undervaluation of the Chinese Currency Between 1994 and 2007," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 47-82.
    10. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.
    11. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "Understanding the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi," MPRA Paper 40648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Michaël GOUJON & Samuel GUERINEAU, 2005. "Mofication of Chinese Exchange rate policy: Rationale, extent and recent development," Working Papers 200523, CERDI.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    14. Jun Wen & Muhammad Ahmad Usman, 2024. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between real exchange rate and innovation: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2991-3006, July.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    17. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    18. Yan, Isabel K. & Kakkar, Vikas, 2010. "The equilibrium real exchange rate of China: a productivity approach," MPRA Paper 35229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Zhang, Zhibai, 2011. "Some notes on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model," MPRA Paper 40965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2022. "RMB misalignment: What does a meta‐analysis tell us?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1038-1086, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renminbi undervaluation; real exchange rate misalignment; applied general equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.