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An equilibrium pricing model for wind power futures

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  • Gersema, Gerke
  • Wozabal, David

Abstract

Generation from wind power plants is intermittent and affects profits of wind power generators and conventional generators alike. Currently, generators have limited options for transferring the resulting wind-related volume risks. The European Energy Exchange (EEX) recently introduced exchange-traded wind power futures to address this market imperfection. We propose a stylized equilibrium pricing model featuring two representative agents and analyze equilibrium prices as well as the mechanics behind risk premia for wind power futures. We calibrate and simulate stochastic models for wind power generation, power prices, electricity demand, as well as other relevant sources of uncertainty and use the resulting scenarios to conduct a case study for the German market; analyzing prices, hedging effectiveness, and risk premia. Our main result suggests that wind generators are willing to pay an insurance premium to conventional generators to reduce their risks. We conduct a thorough sensitivity analysis to test the influence of model parameters and find that our results on risk premia hold for a broad range of reasonable inputs.

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  • Gersema, Gerke & Wozabal, David, 2017. "An equilibrium pricing model for wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 64-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:64-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.032
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    Cited by:

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    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-020 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Thomaidis, Nikolaos S. & Christodoulou, Theodoros & Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J., 2023. "Handling the risk dimensions of wind energy generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    4. Kanamura, Takashi & Homann, Lasse & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2021. "Pricing analysis of wind power derivatives for renewable energy risk management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Yuji Yamada & Takuji Matsumoto, 2021. "Going for Derivatives or Forwards? Minimizing Cashflow Fluctuations of Electricity Transactions on Power Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Awdesch Melzer, 2021. "Pricing wind power futures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1083-1102, August.
    7. Melzer, Awdesch & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & López Cabrera, Brenda, 2017. "Pricing Green Financial Products," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-020, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Hu, Zhihao & Yang, Ben-Zhang & He, Xin-Jiang & Yue, Jia, 2024. "Equilibrium pricing of European crude oil options with stochastic behaviour and jump risks," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 212-230.
    9. Schiochet Pinto, Luane & Pinheiro Neto, Daywes & de Leles Ferreira Filho, Anésio & Domingues, Elder Geraldo, 2020. "An alternative methodology for analyzing the risk and sensitivity of the economic viability for generating electrical energy with biogas from the anaerobic bio-digestion of vinasse," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1401-1410.
    10. Takuji Matsumoto & Yuji Yamada, 2023. "Improving the Efficiency of Hedge Trading Using Higher-Order Standardized Weather Derivatives for Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Fred Espen Benth & Anca Pircalabu, 2018. "A non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 36-65, January.
    12. Zhang, Lingge & Yang, Dong & Wu, Shining & Luo, Meifeng, 2023. "Revisiting the pricing benchmarks for Asian LNG — An equilibrium analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    13. Yeny E. Rodríguez & Miguel A. Pérez-Uribe & Javier Contreras, 2021. "Wind Put Barrier Options Pricing Based on the Nordix Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    14. Christensen, Troels Sønderby & Pircalabu, Anca & Høg, Esben, 2019. "A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-80.
    15. Devine, Mel & Russo, Marianna & Cuffe, Paul, 2019. "Blockchain electricity trading using tokenised power delivery contracts," Papers WP649, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Yuji Yamada & Takuji Matsumoto, 2023. "Construction of Mixed Derivatives Strategy for Wind Power Producers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, April.
    17. Markus Hess, 2021. "A new approach to wind power futures pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1235-1252, December.
    18. Barbosa, Maria de Fatima & Street, Alexandre & Fanzeres, Bruno, 2024. "A Tailored Derivative Instrument to Mitigate the Price-and-Quantity Risk Faced by Wind Power Companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Fugui Dong & Xiaohui Ding & Lei Shi, 2019. "Wind Power Pricing Game Strategy under the China’s Market Trading Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weather derivatives; Power futures; Market integration of renewables; Variable renewables; Wind power; Intermittency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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