IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v262y2023ipas0360544222023088.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the pricing benchmarks for Asian LNG — An equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Lingge
  • Yang, Dong
  • Wu, Shining
  • Luo, Meifeng

Abstract

This study investigates if the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) price is a feasible benchmark to replace the oil indexation in Asian liquified natural gas (LNG) trade. For this purpose, we propose an equilibrium pricing model for the LNG long-term contract (LTC) in Asia. Our model incorporates the risk-averse importer and exporter who optimize their risk-profit tradeoffs by deciding their LTC-spot trade portfolios. Using the model, we compare the pricing efficiency and the risk-profit tradeoff of an importer/exporter under different benchmarks (oil price versus JKM price). The results show that the JKM price is more efficient as an LTC pricing benchmark than the oil price. The JKM pricing benchmark is favored for both exporters and importers when they are low risk-aversion. In addition, we compare the performance of the JKM benchmark based on the CIF price term (i.e., the importer pays for freight charges) with that based on the FOB price term (i.e., the exporter pays for freight charges). We find that the freight liability has little effect on the pricing efficiency of the JKM benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Lingge & Yang, Dong & Wu, Shining & Luo, Meifeng, 2023. "Revisiting the pricing benchmarks for Asian LNG — An equilibrium analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pa:s0360544222023088
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222023088
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125426?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2015. "Natural Gas: An Overview of a Lower-Carbon Transformation Fuel," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(1), pages 64-84.
    2. Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari M.P., 2017. "East Asia’s gas-market failure and distinctive economics—A case study of low oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 800-809.
    3. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B Medlock III & Jennifer E. Rosthal, 2008. "The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 47-66.
    4. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    5. Gersema, Gerke & Wozabal, David, 2018. "Risk-optimized pooling of intermittent renewable energy sources," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 217-230.
    6. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 155-170.
    7. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    8. Li, Yan & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yigang & Li, Jing, 2020. "Identifying price bubbles in the US, European and Asian natural gas market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Ibrahim Abada & Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2017. "Modeling Gas Markets with Endogenous Long-Term Contracts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 856-877, August.
    10. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2012. "Hedging effectiveness under conditions of asymmetry," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 135-147, February.
    11. Shi, Xunpeng & Padinjare Variam, Hari Malamakkavu, 2016. "Gas and LNG trading hubs, hub indexation and destination flexibility in East Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 587-596.
    12. Frank Asche & Atle Oglend & Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices when Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(2), pages 131-148, March.
    13. Theodosios Perifanis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2020. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil and Natural Gas markets in Europe and Japan-Korea," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 432-446.
    14. Zhang, Dayong & Wang, Tiantian & Shi, Xunpeng & Liu, Jia, 2018. "Is hub-based pricing a better choice than oil indexation for natural gas? Evidence from a multiple bubble test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 495-503.
    15. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Energy market financialization: Empirical evidence and implications from East Asian LNG markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 414-419.
    16. Brigida, Matthew, 2014. "The switching relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-55.
    17. Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, and Ruud Egging, 2016. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Supply Security," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    18. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    19. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2020. "The impact of liquefied natural gas and storage on the EU natural gas infrastructure resilience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    20. Vivoda, Vlado, 2014. "Natural gas in Asia: Trade, markets and regional institutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 80-90.
    21. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2018. "Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 820-834.
    22. Egging, Ruud & Pichler, Alois & Kalvø, Øyvind Iversen & Walle–Hansen, Thomas Meyer, 2017. "Risk aversion in imperfect natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 367-383.
    23. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    24. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    25. Zhuang, Jifang & Gabriel, Steven A., 2008. "A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 113-147, January.
    26. Chung-Li Tseng & Graydon Barz, 2002. "Short-Term Generation Asset Valuation: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 297-310, April.
    27. Gersema, Gerke & Wozabal, David, 2017. "An equilibrium pricing model for wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 64-74.
    28. Ibrahim Abada & Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2017. "Modeling gas markets with endogenous long-term contracts," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2908, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    29. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "Further evidence on the debate of oil-gas price decoupling: A long memory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 68-75.
    30. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiaoyu & Wang, Jiaojiao & Wang, Wenhuan & Zhang, Shuquan, 2023. "International and Chinese energy markets: Dynamic spillover effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Tiantian & Qu, Wan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Time-varying determinants of China's liquefied natural gas import price: A dynamic model averaging approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Miao, Xiaoyu & Wang, Qunwei & Dai, Xingyu, 2022. "Is oil-gas price decoupling happening in China? A multi-scale quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 450-470.
    3. Halser, Christoph & Paraschiv, Florentina & Russo, Marianna, 2023. "Oil–gas price relationships on three continents: Disruptions and equilibria," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Wang, TianTian & Zhang, Dayong & Clive Broadstock, David, 2019. "Financialization, fundamentals, and the time-varying determinants of US natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 707-719.
    5. Theodosios Perifanis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2020. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil and Natural Gas markets in Europe and Japan-Korea," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 432-446.
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Wang, Tiantian & Shi, Xunpeng & Liu, Jia, 2018. "Is hub-based pricing a better choice than oil indexation for natural gas? Evidence from a multiple bubble test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 495-503.
    7. Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Shi, Xunpeng, 2020. "Market reforms and determinants of import natural gas prices in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "Further evidence on the debate of oil-gas price decoupling: A long memory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 68-75.
    9. Wang, Zuyi & Kim, Man-Keun, 2022. "Price bubbles in oil & gas markets and their transfer," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
    12. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2018. "What drives natural gas prices in the United States? – A directed acyclic graph approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 79-88.
    13. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    16. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    17. Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare & Shen, Yifan, 2019. "Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline and ASEAN gas market integration: Insights from a scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 83-95.
    18. Zhang, Xiaokong & Chai, Jian & Tian, Lingyue & Pan, Yue & Wang, Jiaoyan, 2024. "What drives the high-risk spillover of benchmark oil prices into China's LNG market?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    19. Ji, Qiang & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Information spillovers and connectedness networks in the oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 71-84.
    20. Liu, Yan & Shi, Xunpeng & Laurenceson, James, 2020. "Dynamics of Australia's LNG export performance: A modified constant market shares analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pa:s0360544222023088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.