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Forecasting oil futures returns with news

Author

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  • Pan, Zhiyuan
  • Zhong, Hao
  • Wang, Yudong
  • Huang, Juan

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the extent to which text data contains valuable information for predicting oil futures returns. A novel mixed-frequency data sampling random forest regression (MIDAS-RF) approach is proposed to construct a textual indicator. This approach can extract nonlinearity and interaction information from news and allows us to better handle the mixed-frequency and high-dimensional data. Comparing it with traditional sentiment variables and financial factors, our indicator demonstrates better forecasting performance both statistically and economically, with a monthly out-of-sample R2 of 5.26% and an annualized certainty equivalent return gain of 3.08%, respectively. Further evidence suggests that the predictability of the textual indicator is primarily driven by words related to capital markets and macroeconomic topics.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Zhiyuan & Zhong, Hao & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Juan, 2024. "Forecasting oil futures returns with news," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:134:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324003141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107606
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil futures; Return predictability; Machine learning; Mixed-frequency data sampling; Textual analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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