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Manager sentiment and stock returns

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Listed:
  • Fuwei Jiang

    (School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Joshua Lee

    (Terry College of Business, University of Georgia)

  • Xiumin Martin

    (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Guofu Zhou

    (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

This paper constructs a manager sentiment index based on the aggregated textual tone of corporate financial disclosures. We find that manager sentiment is a strong negative predictor of future aggregate stock market returns, with monthly in-sample and out-of-sample R2s of 9.75% and 8.38%, respectively, which is far greater than the predictive power of other previously studied macroeconomic variables. Its predictive power is economically comparable and is informationally complementary to existing measures of investor sentiment. Higher manager sentiment precedes lower aggregate earnings surprises and greater aggregate investment growth. Moreover, manager sentiment negatively predicts cross-sectional stock returns, particularly for firms that are difficult to value and costly to arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuwei Jiang & Joshua Lee & Xiumin Martin & Guofu Zhou, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," CEMA Working Papers 677, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:677
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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