IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v128y2023ics0140988323006114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Meng, Xin
  • Yu, Yanni

Abstract

Geopolitical risk is an important factor driving the change in energy prices, especially the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict. The gasoline price is essential to national economic development and social stability. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices in various countries? The paper constructs a regression discontinuity (RD) model to analyze the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on gasoline prices to solve this problem. There are some important findings. (1) Gasoline prices in countries with greater than zero external dependence on crude oil are vulnerable to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (2) The Russia-Ukraine conflict can increase gasoline prices by affecting international crude oil prices. (3) The Russia-Ukraine conflict can increase gasoline prices by affecting inflation rates. Some related policy suggestions are also proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:128:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323006114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323006114
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon B. Dahl & Katrine V. L?ken & Magne Mogstad, 2014. "Peer Effects in Program Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2049-2074, July.
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    3. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    4. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    5. Bhaskar Bagchi & Biswajit Paul, 2023. "Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Shahzad, Umer & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Tiwari, Sunil & Nakonieczny, Joanna & Nesterowicz, Renata, 2023. "Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Whether crude oil dependence and CO2 emissions influence military expenditure in net oil importing countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Sun, Huiqian & Jing, Peng & Wang, Baihui & Cai, Yunhao & Ye, Jie & Wang, Bichen, 2023. "The effect of record-high gasoline prices on the consumers’ new energy vehicle purchase intention: Evidence from the uniform experimental design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Salimi, Mohsen & Moradi, Mohammad Ali & Amidpour, Majid, 2022. "Modeling and outlook analysis of gasoline supply and demand and sensitivity analysis of main economic and social drivers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    12. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    13. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
    14. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2020. "Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "Inflation synchronization among the G7and China: The important role of oil inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Lemieux, Thomas & Imbens, Guido, 2008. "The Regression Discontinuity Design — Theory and Applications," Scholarly Articles 3043411, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. Wang, Minggang & Chen, Ying & Tian, Lixin & Jiang, Shumin & Tian, Zihao & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Fluctuation behavior analysis of international crude oil and gasoline price based on complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 109-127.
    18. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    19. Alan I. Barreca & Melanie Guldi & Jason M. Lindo & Glen R. Waddell, 2011. "Saving Babies? Revisiting the effect of very low birth weight classification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 2117-2123.
    20. Taylor, Eric, 2014. "Spending more of the school day in math class: Evidence from a regression discontinuity in middle school," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 162-181.
    21. Michael Greenstone & Guojun He & Ruixue Jia & Tong Liu, 2022. "Can Technology Solve the Principal-Agent Problem? Evidence from China's War on Air Pollution," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 54-70, March.
    22. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    23. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    24. Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "Education and pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours: A nonparametric regression discontinuity analysis of a major schooling reform in England and Wales," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    25. Chen, Hao & Sun, Zesheng, 2021. "International crude oil price, regulation and asymmetric response of China's gasoline price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    26. Xu, Lei & Chen, Jingrui & Qu, Fang & Wang, Jue & Lu, Yi, 2022. "Queuing to refuel before price rise in China: How do gasoline price changes affect consumer responses and behaviours?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    27. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    28. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2015. "How price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel-subsidizing economies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Jiang, Yong & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Tail connectedness between category-specific policy uncertainty, sovereign debt risk, and stock volatility during a high inflation period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    3. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Chen, Shi & Duan, Xiaoyu & Chiu, Shiu-Chieh & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2024. "Insurer hedging amidst the interplay of black and green swans toward SDGs 3 and 7," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    3. Bartalotti Otávio, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity and Heteroskedasticity Robust Standard Errors: Evidence from a Fixed-Bandwidth Approximation," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Salim Atay & Gunes A. Asik & Semih Tumen, 2024. "Impact of Graduating with Honours on Entry Wages of Economics Majors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 606-640, June.
    5. Kabir Dasgupta & Christopher Erwin & Alexander Plum, 2020. "The Devil is in the Details: Identifying the Unbiased Link between Access to Alcohol and Criminal Behavior," Working Papers 2020-12, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    6. Xu, Ke-Li, 2017. "Regression discontinuity with categorical outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Adam C. Sales & Ben B. Hansen, 2020. "Limitless Regression Discontinuity," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 45(2), pages 143-174, April.
    8. Pastore, Chiara & Jones, Andrew M., 2023. "Human capital consequences of missing out on a grammar school education," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Gurgand, Marc & Lorenceau, Adrien & Mélonio, Thomas, 2023. "Student loans: Credit constraints and higher education in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "Does the COVID-19 lockdown improve global air quality? New cross-national evidence on its unintended consequences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Jin-young Choi & Myoung-jae Lee, 2017. "Regression discontinuity: review with extensions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1217-1246, December.
    12. Heinesen, Eskil, 2018. "Admission to higher education programmes and student educational outcomes and earnings–Evidence from Denmark," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Angelo D'Andrea, 2019. "Mayor’s wage and Public procurement," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19125, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Di Giacomo, Marina & Piacenza, Massimiliano & Siciliani, Luigi & Turati, Gilberto, 2022. "The effect of co-payments on the take-up of prenatal tests," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. Meyer, Andrew G., 2017. "The impact of education on political ideology: Evidence from European compulsory education reforms," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 9-23.
    17. Burgherr, David, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to a Pension Savings Mandate : Quasi-experimental Evidence from Swiss Tax Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 645, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    18. Sanz, Carlos, 2020. "Direct democracy and government size: evidence from Spain," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 630-645, October.
    19. Davezies, Laurent & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2017. "Regression discontinuity design with continuous measurement error in the running variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 260-281.
    20. D’Inverno, Giovanna & Smet, Mike & De Witte, Kristof, 2021. "Impact evaluation in a multi-input multi-output setting: Evidence on the effect of additional resources for schools," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1111-1124.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:128:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323006114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.