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Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries

Author

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  • Bhaskar Bagchi

    (Department of Commerce, University of Gour Banga, Malda 732103, India)

  • Biswajit Paul

    (Department of Commerce, University of Gour Banga, Malda 732103, India)

Abstract

The present study examines the effects of the steep surge in crude oil prices which has also been considered as an oil price shock on the stock price returns and currency exchange rates of G7 countries, namely Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Due to the outbreak of the war, the steep surge in Brent crude oil price returns is seen as an exogenous shock to stock price returns and exchange rates during the period from 2 January 2017 to 29 June 2022. The paper applies the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) model to capture the effect of the crude oil price shock and the Breakpoint unit root test to examine the structural breaks in the dataset. Structural breakpoints in the dataset for the entire stock price returns and exchange rates are observed during the period commencing from the last week of February, 2022, to the last week of March, 2022. Except for TSX, NASDAQ and USD, noteworthy long memory effects running from Brent crude oil price to all the stock price returns along with the currency exchange rates for all G7 countries were also found.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhaskar Bagchi & Biswajit Paul, 2023. "Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:64-:d:1045044
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    2. Zheng, ShiYong & Li, Xiao & Li, Juan & Li, Biqing & Hafeez, Muhammad, 2023. "Assessing the COVID-19 impact on economy, health and natural resource prices: An evidence from selected Asian economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    3. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2023. "The Extended January Effect on London Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 104-114.
    4. Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Mouna Ben Saad Zorgati, 2023. "Risk Measure between Exchange Rate and Oil Price during Crises: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    Keywords

    G7 countries; crude oil price; stock return; FIGARCH;
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