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Analysis of customer lifetime value and marketing expenditure decisions through a Markovian-based model

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  • Ekinci, Yeliz
  • Ülengin, Füsun
  • Uray, Nimet
  • Ülengin, Burç

Abstract

The general aim of this study is to provide a guide to the future marketing decisions of a firm, using a model to predict customer lifetime values. The proposed framework aims to eliminate the limitations and drawbacks of the majority of models encountered in the literature through a simple and industry-specific model with easily measurable and objective indicators. In addition, this model predicts the potential value of the current customers rather than measuring the current value, which has generally been used in the majority of previous studies. This study contributes to the literature by helping to make future marketing decisions via Markov decision processes for a company that offers several types of products. Another contribution is that the states for Markov decision processes are also generated using the predicted customer lifetime values where the prediction is realized by a regression-based model. Finally, a real world application of the proposed model is provided in the banking sector to show the empirical validity of the model. Therefore, we believe that the proposed framework and the developed model can guide both practitioners and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekinci, Yeliz & Ülengin, Füsun & Uray, Nimet & Ülengin, Burç, 2014. "Analysis of customer lifetime value and marketing expenditure decisions through a Markovian-based model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 278-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:237:y:2014:i:1:p:278-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.01.014
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    2. Jerath, Kinshuk & Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2016. "Customer-base analysis using repeated cross-sectional summary (RCSS) data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 340-350.
    3. Luoma, Jukka, 2016. "Model-based organizational decision making: A behavioral lens," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 816-826.
    4. Matsuoka, Kohsuke, 2021. "A framework for variance analysis of customer equity based on a Markov chain model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 57-69.
    5. Mehrdad Memarpour & Erfan Hassannayebi & Navid Fattahi Miab & Ali Farjad, 2021. "Dynamic allocation of promotional budgets based on maximizing customer equity," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2365-2389, December.
    6. Maria Kubacka, 2020. "Review and Analysis of Selected Customer Value Measurement Methods (Przeglad i analiza wybranych metod pomiaru wartosci klienta)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(32), pages 34-46.
    7. Chang, Shuhua & Zhang, Zhaowei & Wang, Xinyu & Dong, Yan, 2020. "Optimal acquisition and retention strategies in a duopoly model of competition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 677-695.

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