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A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect

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  • Li, Jingjing
  • Zhuang, Chu
  • Zou, Wei

Abstract

During the early outbreak phase of COVID-19 in China, lockdowns prevailed as the only available policy tools to mitigate the spread of infection. To evaluate the impact of lockdown policies in the context of the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic, we leverage data on daily confirmed cases per million people and related characteristics of a large set of cities. The study analyzed 369 Chinese cities, among which 188 implemented lockdowns of varying severity levels from January 23 to March 31, 2020. We use nationwide Baidu Mobility data to estimate the impact of lockdown policies on mitigating COVID-19 cases through reducing human mobility. We adopt a heterogeneous treatment effect model to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on containing confirmed case counts. Our results suggest that lockdowns substantially reduced human mobility, and larger reduction in mobility occurred within-city compared to between-city. The COVID-19 daily confirmed cases per million people decreased by 9% - 9.2% for every ten-percentage point fall in within-city travel intensity in t+7 timeframe. We also find that one city’s lockdowns can effectively reduce the spillover cases of the traveler’s destination cities. We find no evidence that stricter lockdowns are more effective at mitigating COVID-19 risks. Our findings provide practical insights about the effectiveness of NPI during the early outbreak phase of the unprecedented pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jingjing & Zhuang, Chu & Zou, Wei, 2024. "A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:53:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x24000170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101365
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Pandemic; Lockdown Policies; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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