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Shelter‐In‐Place Orders And Public Health: Evidence From California During The Covid‐19 Pandemic

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  • Andrew I. Friedson
  • Drew McNichols
  • Joseph J. Sabia
  • Dhaval Dave

Abstract

A shelter‐in‐place order (SIPO) is one of the most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions designed to curb the spread of COVID‐19. On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide SIPO in the United States. The order closed non‐essential businesses and required residents to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This study is the first in the economics literature to estimate the effect of a statewide SIPO on public health. Using daily state‐level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID‐19 cases by 160.9 to 194.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,566 fewer COVID‐19 deaths during this period. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations suggest that there were about 649 to 703 job losses per life saved, and about 14 to16 job losses per case averted during this post‐treatment period.

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  • Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia & Dhaval Dave, 2021. "Shelter‐In‐Place Orders And Public Health: Evidence From California During The Covid‐19 Pandemic," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 258-283, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:40:y:2021:i:1:p:258-283
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22267
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Compliance

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    3. Li, Jingjing & Zhuang, Chu & Zou, Wei, 2024. "A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Dhaval Dave & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2022. "The limits of reopening policy to alter economic behavior: New evidence from Texas," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 109-145, April.
    5. Difang Huang & Ying Liang & Boyao Wu & Yanyi Ye, 2024. "Estimating the Impact of Social Distance Policy in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread with Factor-Based Imputation Approach," Papers 2405.12180, arXiv.org.
    6. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    7. Yu Pang, 2022. "A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2050-2071, September.
    8. Steffen Juranek & Floris T. Zoutman, 2021. "The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1299-1320, October.
    9. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-107.
    10. Borja Gambau & Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2022. "COVID-19 restrictions in the US: wage vulnerability by education, race and gender," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(25), pages 2900-2915, May.
    11. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    12. Jordan G. Taqi-Eddin, 2024. "Impact Analysis of the Chesa Boudin Administration," Papers 2405.11455, arXiv.org.
    13. Alexandre K Ligo & Emerson Mahoney & Jeffrey Cegan & Benjamin D Trump & Andrew S Jin & Maksim Kitsak & Jesse Keenan & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Relationship among state reopening policies, health outcomes and economic recovery through first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Dhaval Dave & Andrew Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Connor Redpath & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 133-167, October.
    15. Apel, Johannes & Rohde, Niklas & Marcus, Jan, 2023. "The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.
    17. Wichmann, Bruno & Wichmann, Roberta, 2022. "COVID-19 and Indigenous health in the Brazilian Amazon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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