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Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

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  • André, Francisco J.
  • Smulders, Sjak

Abstract

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

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  • André, Francisco J. & Smulders, Sjak, 2014. "Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:18-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.10.007
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    4. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    5. Barreto, Raul A., 2018. "Fossil fuels, alternative energy and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 196-220.
    6. Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    7. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    8. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 2021. "Opimal Unilateral Climate Policy with Carbon Leakage at the Extensive and the Intensive Margin," CESifo Working Paper Series 9185, CESifo.
    9. Peretto, Pietro & Valente, Simone, 2024. "Sustainable Growth and Secular Trends," MPRA Paper 120828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2018. "Competing Land Uses and Fossil Fuel, Optimal Energy Conversion Rates During the Transition Toward a Green Economy Under a Pollution Stock Constraint," TSE Working Papers 18-981, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, 2018. "Green Growth and Taste Heterogeneity," IBS Working Papers 07/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    12. Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2020. "Instrument choice and stranded assets in the transition to clean capital," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    14. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    15. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth Theory and “Green Growthâ€," OxCarre Working Papers 135, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2021. "Directed Technical Change in Labor and Environmental Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 571-597, August.
    18. Antosiewicz, Marek & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2021. "Short- and long-run dynamics of energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Simone Marsiglio & Alberto Ansuategi & Maria Carmen Gallastegui, 2016. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Structural Change Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 265-288, February.
    20. Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, 2019. "Directed Technical Change, Environmental Sustainability, and Population Growth," Discussion Papers 19-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    21. Julie Rozenberg & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Stephane Hallegatte, 2017. "Instrument Choice and Stranded Assets in the Transition to Clean Capital," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 98039, Inter-American Development Bank.
    22. Hou, Zheng & Roseta-Palma, Catarina & Ramalho, Joaquim José dos Santos, 2021. "Does directed technological change favor energy? Firm-level evidence from Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    23. Kerner, Philip & Wendler, Tobias, 2022. "Convergence in resource productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    24. Kerner, Philip & Kalthaus, Martin & Wendler, Tobias, 2023. "Economic growth and the use of natural resources: assessing the moderating role of institutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable resources; Energy; Economic growth; Innovation; Directed technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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