IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeeman/v31y1996i1p65-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?

Author

Listed:
  • Berck, Peter
  • Roberts, Michael

Abstract

Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints, or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is that there is only a weak supposition that natural resource prices will rise.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:31:y:1996:i:1:p:65-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095-0696(96)90032-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Hartwick, John M, 1978. "Exploitation of Many Deposits of an Exhaustible Resource," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 201-217, January.
    3. repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
    5. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Mike, 1995. "Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up?," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt75g2c8g8, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    3. Julien Daubanes & Pierre Lasserre, 2019. "The supply of non-renewable resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1084-1111, August.
    4. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    5. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 1996. "Non-conventional fuel tax credits and the extraction R&D model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 207-215, September.
    6. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    7. Sweeney, James L., 1993. "Economic theory of depletable resources: An introduction," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 759-854, Elsevier.
    8. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Tang, Sam Hak Kan & Wu, Yanrui, 2003. "The efficiency of the Chinese stock market and the role of the banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 593-609, August.
    9. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    10. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Emma Ben Youssef, 1997. "An empirical testing of exchange market efficiency hypothesis [Une évaluation empirique de l'efficience du marché deschanges]," Post-Print hal-01851744, HAL.
    11. Robert D. Cairns & Graham A. Davis, 2015. "Mineral Depletion and the Rules of Resource Dynamics," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(1_suppl), pages 159-178, June.
    12. Nordier, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Identifying possible misspecification in South African soybean oil future contracts," Research Theses 334756, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    13. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    14. Nicolaas Groenewold & Mohamed Ariff, 1998. "The Effects of De-Regulation on Share-Market Efficiency in the Asia-Pacific," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 23-47.
    15. Rossana, Robert J., 1988. "Interrelated Demands for Buffer Stocks and Productive Inputs: Estimates for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259428, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    17. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    18. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    19. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    20. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:31:y:1996:i:1:p:65-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.