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Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years

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  • Madsen, Jakob B.
  • Robertson, Peter E.
  • Ye, Longfeng

Abstract

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt trade? We estimate the impact of epidemics on trade between regional wheat markets over four centuries — from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Using a gravity model, we find that outbreaks had a statistically significant, but relatively modest, impact on local variations in wheat prices. The results provide quantitative evidence on the extent to which epidemics disrupted markets and trade in pre-industrial Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0014292123002829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104654
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Trade; Trade costs; Black death;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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