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The Trade Effects of the Plague: The Saminiati and Guasconi Bank of Florence (1626-1634)

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J R Elliott

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Fabio Gatti

    (University of Bern)

  • Eric Strobl

    (University of Bern & University of Birmingham)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of the 1630-1631 Italian plague on the business activities of the Florentine merchant-bank Saminiati & Guasconi. Employing AI for handwriting recognition on over 6,000 bank letters we show that letters and goods transactions decreased by two-thirds when a merchant lived in an infected town although this negative effect was halved when the correspondent also resided in an infected town. Mentions of precious coins however increased reflecting a flight to the safety of hard currency. The plague also shifted the bank’s merchant network towards Southern and Eastern Europe and away from the Atlantic Coast.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J R Elliott & Fabio Gatti & Eric Strobl, 2024. "The Trade Effects of the Plague: The Saminiati and Guasconi Bank of Florence (1626-1634)," Working Papers 0271, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    • Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0271
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    File URL: https://www.ehes.org/wp/EHES_271.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    merchants; plague; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N83 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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