IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v407y2000i6806d10.1038_35038073.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague

Author

Listed:
  • M. J. Keeling

    (University of Cambridge)

  • C. A. Gilligan

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Bubonic plague is widely regarded as a disease of mainly historical importance; however, with increasing reports of incidence1,2,3 and the discovery of antibiotic-resistant strains of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis4, it is re-emerging as a significant health concern5,6. Here we bypass the conventional human-disease models, and propose that bubonic plague is driven by the dynamics of the disease in the rat population. Using a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model, we show that bubonic plague can persist in relatively small rodent populations from which occasional human epidemics arise, without the need for external imports. This explains why historically the plague persisted despite long disease-free periods, and how the disease re-occurred in cities with tight quarantine control. In a contemporary setting, we show that human vaccination cannot eradicate the plague, and that culling of rats may prevent or exacerbate human epidemics, depending on the timing of the cull. The existence of plague reservoirs in wild rodent populations has important public-health implications for the transmission to urban rats and the subsequent risk of human outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • M. J. Keeling & C. A. Gilligan, 2000. "Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6806), pages 903-906, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:407:y:2000:i:6806:d:10.1038_35038073
    DOI: 10.1038/35038073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/35038073
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/35038073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner, 2020. "Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Layla Höckerstedt & Elina Numminen & Ben Ashby & Mike Boots & Anna Norberg & Anna-Liisa Laine, 2022. "Spatially structured eco-evolutionary dynamics in a host-pathogen interaction render isolated populations vulnerable to disease," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    5. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.
    6. Ajelli, Marco & Fumanelli, Laura & Manfredi, Piero & Merler, Stefano, 2011. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:407:y:2000:i:6806:d:10.1038_35038073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.