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Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague

Author

Listed:
  • Fabian Siuda

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business
    ifo Institute)

  • Uwe Sunde

    (ifo Institute
    University of Munich
    CEPR)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:26:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10887-020-09185-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-020-09185-4
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    3. Wang, Jun & Ang, James B., 2024. "Epidemics, disease control, and China’s long-term development," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-112.
    4. van Besouw, Bram & Curtis, Daniel R., 2022. "Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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    7. Desierto, Desiree & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "The Political Economy of Status Competition: Sumptuary Laws in Preindustrial Europe," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 479-516, June.

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