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Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities

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  • Guido Alfani
  • Marco Percoco

Abstract

This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.

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  • Guido Alfani & Marco Percoco, 2019. "Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1175-1201, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:72:y:2019:i:4:p:1175-1201
    DOI: 10.1111/ehr.12652
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    Cited by:

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    4. Alfani, Guido & Di Tullio, M & Fochesato, M, 2020. "The determinants of wealth inequality in the Republic of Venice (1400-1800)," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 483, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Rota, Mauro & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2020. "Italy and the Little Divergence in Wages and Prices: New Data, New Results," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 931-960, December.
    6. Guido Alfani & Matteo Di Tullio, 2015. "Dinamiche di lungo periodo della disuguaglianza in Italia settentrionale: una nota di ricerca," Working Papers 071, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    7. Giacomo Caracciolo & Salvatore Lo Bello & Dario Pellegrino, 2021. "An assessment on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Italian demographic structure," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 622, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2014. "Urbanization and Growth: Why Did the Splendor of the Italian Cities in the Sixteenth Century not Lead to Transition?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5038, CESifo.
    9. Maurizio Malpede & Marco Percoco, 2021. "Lockdown measures and air quality: evidence from Italian provinces," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 101-110, August.
    10. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    12. Galli, Stefania & Dimitrios, Theodoridis, & Rönnbäck, Klas, 2024. "Thriving in a declining economy - Elite persistence in the West Indies, 1760-1914," Göteborg Papers in Economic History 37, University of Gothenburg, Unit for Economic History.
    13. Adham Sayed & Bin Peng, 2021. "Pandemics and income inequality: a historical review," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-17, April.
    14. Guido Alfani & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "Famine and Disease in Economic History: A Summary Introduction," Working Papers 201803, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    15. Masciandaro, Donato & Goodhart, Charles & Ugolini, Stefano, 2021. "Pandemic recession and helicopter money: Venice, 1629–1631," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 300-318, December.
    16. Fochesato, Mattia, 2018. "Origins of Europe’s north-south divide: Population changes, real wages and the ‘little divergence’ in early modern Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-131.
    17. Guido Alfani & Wouter Ryckbosch, 2015. "Was there a ‘Little Convergence’ in inequality? Italy and the Low Countries compared, ca. 1500-1800," Working Papers 557, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    19. Zhao, Hongjun & Chen, Na, 2022. "Medium and long-term impact of SARS on total factor productivity（TFP): Empirical evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Weisdorf, Jacob & Rota, Mauro, 2020. "Italy and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from Stable Employment in Rural Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 14652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Paul Slack, 2022. "Perceptions of plague in eighteenth‐century Europe," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(1), pages 138-156, February.
    22. Mauro Rota & Jacob Weisdorf, 2021. "Italy and the little divergence in wages and prices: evidence from stable employment in rural areas," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 449-470, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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