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Microbes and Markets: Was the Black Death an Economic Revolution?

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  • Gregory CLARK

    (University of California - Davis)

Abstract

Recent papers have suggested that the Industrial Revolution in Europe ultimately derives from the labor scarce economy of northwest Europe, which some trace back to the Black Death [Voigtländer and Voth (2013a) and Allen (2011)]. This paper examines the effects of the Black Death in England. Specifically, did it merely change relative factor prices, or did it lead to lasting gains in the efficiency of the economy after 1348? Extensive wage and price data from England 1210–1800 suggest that the population losses of the Black Death were associated with a surprising increase in economic efficiency, despite the decline in the scale of the economy. But this efficiency gain disappeared when population rose again in the 16th century. There is no sign of a connection between a labor scarce economy, and a switch to faster long run economic growth through technological advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory CLARK, 2016. "Microbes and Markets: Was the Black Death an Economic Revolution?," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 139-165, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:82:y:2016:i:2:p:139-165
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2016.6
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Black Death

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jun & Ang, James B., 2024. "Epidemics, disease control, and China’s long-term development," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-112.
    2. Guido Alfani, 2022. "Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 3-40, March.
    3. Rashid, Muhammad Mustafa, 2019. "Berkeley Blues; Ford Community Corps Partnership: Integrating Environmental Ethic, Bioethics and the Ethics of Emerging Technology into a Comprehensive Leadership Philosophy. A Regional Study, Detroit," MPRA Paper 101867, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jun 2020.
    4. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Broadberry, Stephen & de Pleijt, Alexandra M., 2021. "Capital and Economic Growth in Britain, 1270-1870: Preliminary findings," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 546, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    6. Rohan Dutta & David K. Levine & Nicholas W. Papageorge & Lemin Wu, 2018. "Entertaining Malthus: Bread, Circuses, And Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 358-380, January.
    7. MADSEN, Jakob B, 2018. "Is Inequality Increasing in r-g? The Dynamics of Capital’s Income Share in the UK, 1210-2013," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-70, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Gregory Clark, 2018. "Growth or stagnation? Farming in England, 1200–1800," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 55-81, February.
    9. Thiago Christiano Silva & Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Solange Maria Guerra, 2022. "Covid-19 and market power in local credit markets: the role of digitalization," BIS Working Papers 1017, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 393-416, July.
    11. A.I. Pogorletskiy, 2020. "Historical Reconstruction of the Impact of Pandemics on the Development of Indirect Taxation," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(2), pages 180-207.
    12. Jeel Joshi & Shekhar Nagargoje, 2020. "Impact of Covid-19 on Office Market Segment of India," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 7(8), pages 39-45, August.
    13. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "COVID-19 and bank branch lending: The moderating effect of digitalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black Death; Malthusian economy; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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