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The causal effect of wrong-hand drive vehicles on road safety

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  • Roesel, Felix

Abstract

Left-hand drive (LHD) vehicles share higher road accident risks under left-hand traffic because of blind spot areas. Due to low import prices, the number of wrong-hand drive vehicles skyrockets in emerging countries like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. I identify the causal effect of wrong-hand drive vehicles on road safety employing a new “backward version” of the synthetic control method. Sweden switched from left-hand to right-hand traffic in 1967. Before 1967, however, almost all Swedish vehicles were LHD for reasons of international trade and Swedish customer demand. I match on accident figures in the period after 1967, when both Sweden and other European countries drove on the right and used LHD vehicles. Results show that right-hand traffic decreased road fatality, injury and accident risk in Sweden by approximately 30%. An earlier switch would have saved more than 4000 lives between 1953 and 1966.

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  • Roesel, Felix, 2017. "The causal effect of wrong-hand drive vehicles on road safety," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 11, pages 15-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:11-12:y:2017:i::p:15-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2017.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Borsati, Mattia & Cascarano, Michele & Bazzana, Flavio, 2019. "On the impact of average speed enforcement systems in reducing highway accidents: Evidence from the Italian Safety Tutor," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Poddar, Prashant & Singh, Vijaya, 2021. "When left is ‘right’! The impact of driving-side practice on road fatalities in Africa," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 225-232.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Road accidents; Sweden; Natural experiment; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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