Is there a "Machine Substitution"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries

The exponential growth of the digital economy, particularly in emerging market countries, has significantly reshaped employment structures characterized by substitution and supplementation effects. Will "machine substitution" result in labor flow between sectors, or will it precipitate a polarization of employment skills akin to the patterns observed in industrialized countries and lead to structural unemployment? These issues have not yet been adequately addressed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of digital economy development on the employment structure, considering both sectoral and skill perspectives. Using a panel dataset encompassing 30 emerging market countries between 2006 and 2020, we find that as the digital economy grows, the employment structure from the sectoral perspective improves in a way that favors the tertiary sector, while the employment structure from the skill perspective shows an evolutionary process from a monotonically upgrading effect to "polarization," which differs from the pattern observed in developed countries. The digital economy’s impact on emerging market countries displays discernible heterogeneity and stage-specific characteristics. The mechanism analysis underscores the role of entrepreneurial activity and the relative importance of the tertiary sector compared to the primary sector, as measured by value-added, in mediating the digital economy's effect on the employment structure. Finally, our threshold test reveals a nonlinear regulatory effect of the digital economy on the employment structure, highlighting its critical implications for policymakers and businesses.